Florida will vote on marijuana and abortion – an election that will test the GOP's dominance

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (AP) — Florida's election will test whether the state maintains its newfound reputation as a Republican stronghold or whether Democrats make some gains by boosting support for abortion and marijuana voting issues and the New Energy take advantage of what Vice President Kamala Harris is bringing with her to the race.

Gone are the days when Florida was considered the biggest win among swing states. After former President Barack Obama won Florida twice, former President Donald Trump narrowly carried the state in 2016 and by a much larger margin in 2020. In 2022, Republicans captured all five statewide seats by overwhelming margins.

Still, there is a lot of excitement over constitutional amendments that could protect abortion rights and legalize recreational marijuana, with both sides pumping millions of dollars into advertising on each issue. Democrats are supporting the ballot measures, hoping they will increase voter turnout to give them at least a chance of preventing Trump's third straight victory in Florida and stopping U.S. Sen. Rick Scott from winning a second term.

The only statewide office on the ballot is Scott's Senate seat. Scott is being challenged by former Democratic U.S. Rep. Debbie Murcarsel-Powell in a race overshadowed by the presidential election and questions about abortion and marijuana.

Even if Trump and Scott are victorious in Florida, Democratic Party Chairwoman Nikki Fried said the election would be a major success if the amendments were passed and the party drew enough seats in the Legislature to give Republicans absolute control to take majority.

“Look where we were in November 2022. We had the biggest loss Florida Democrats have ever experienced,” Fried said. “Nobody expected that we would even be having this conversation today, that the polls would show us close, that there would even be a possibility that Florida would be in play. Everyone counted us out.”

Nevertheless, things are looking up. The amendments need support from at least 60% of voters, and so much money is being spent on them that it could raise doubts among voters who normally support the issues, said Florida-based Republican political strategist Jamie Miller.

“As a general rule, amendments pass when no real effort is made against them, and they fail when real efforts are made against them,” Miller said.

Miller also believes Democrats are more motivated to vote against Republicans they don't like than to be inspired by their own candidates.

“I see excitement against Donald Trump and against Rick Scott, but in general Florida's size in the state is not enough to get over the finish line,” he said.

Scott served two terms as governor, winning each with less than 50% of the vote. In 2018, he defeated incumbent Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson in a race that was decided by 0.2 percentage points. But Florida politics have changed. The last time Scott voted, Democrats outnumbered Republicans in the state. Republicans now have a one million voter lead.

Scott, one of the richest members of Congress, has pumped millions of dollars of his own money into the race, as he has in his last three elections. Murcarsel-Powell was far out of its depth and had little money from the National Democrats until the final weeks of the campaign, so it struggled to attract attention.

Although Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis did not take part in the vote, he spent time fighting against the abortion rights and marijuana amendments. DeSantis even used state agencies to fight the change. For example, the Agency for Health Care Administration set up a website and aired television advertisements with information about abortion, and the Department of Health tried to block television stations from airing an advertisement for the change.

The abortion amendment would protect a woman's right to have an abortion up to the point where the fetus can survive outside the womb. Florida now bans abortions six weeks after conception, when many women don't realize they are pregnant.

Voters overwhelmingly approved medical marijuana in 2016. This year they are being asked to legalize recreational marijuana. The marijuana industry has spent tens of millions of dollars on the campaign, while DeSantis has raised money against it and often criticized it at official events.

Very few, if any, of Florida's 28 congressional seats are competitive, but the state will elect at least one new member to Congress. Former Senate President Mike Haridopolos is considered the successor to outgoing Republican Rep. Bill Posey. He is being challenged by Democrat Sandy Kennedy in a strong Republican district.

Republicans will retain control of the legislature. Democrats will consider it a major victory if they flip enough seats to eliminate the GOP supermajorities in the House and Senate.

One of the most targeted House seats is held by Republican Sen. Corey Simon, a former Florida State and NFL football star, who is being challenged by nationally known civil rights attorney Daryl Parks, the former partner of civil rights attorney Ben Crump.