First: Americans head to the polls with a historic election on a knife's edge | US News

Good morning

Tens of millions of voters will cast their ballots on Tuesday in one of the closest and most contentious presidential elections in modern US history, with Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in a dead heat.

Recent polls have shown no clear advantage for either candidate in the battleground states, but most experts agree that whoever wins Pennsylvania will likely come out on top.

“If we win Pennsylvania, we win the whole ball of wax,” Trump said at a rally in Reading, southeastern Pennsylvania. The Republican ended her campaign by insulting her opponents, while Harris concluded by calling on her party to “get to work and get out to vote.”

Harris spent the final day of the campaign in Pennsylvania and ended his campaign alongside Lady Gaga and Oprah Winfrey in Philadelphia. “We can’t wait this out,” Winfrey said. “If we don’t show up tomorrow, it’s entirely possible we’ll never have the opportunity to cast a vote again.”

The president's result is close to 50:50, says election guru

Lead forecaster Nate Silver released his final election forecast overnight, predicting the candidates would have nearly equal chances of winning the top job.

Silver said Harris won in 40,012 out of 80,000, or 50.015%, of simulations run with his model. While polls on Monday gave Harris a slight lead in Michigan, she was tied with Trump in Pennsylvania and other battleground states. Meanwhile, Trump maintained his lead in the betting markets, but the odds fell slightly.

• Who is Silver? The forecaster named 49 of 50 states in the 2008 election, as well as the results of the 2012 and 2020 elections. However, it must be taken with a grain of salt – in 2016, he gave Trump only a 28.6% chance of becoming president.

US security authorities warn of a Russian disinformation offensive regarding the election in swing states

Moscow-linked disinformation operations falsely claimed that officials in swing states were planning to fraudulently influence the U.S. election, U.S. security officials said.

“Russia is the most active threat,” the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), the FBI and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency said Monday.

“These efforts risk inciting violence, including against election officials,” they added, saying they expected disinformation campaigns to escalate on Election Day and in the coming weeks. Authorities cited examples of fake videos purporting to show voter fraud in Arizona and Pennsylvania.

Keep up with The Stakes

As we face a very exciting time before we know what will happen when it comes to a really close presidential race, you can count on The Stakes newsletter to keep you updated every morning. For ongoing coverage, visit our live blog.

In other election news…

• Influential podcaster Joe Rogan has endorsed Donald Trump for president. He said he was influenced by “the great and powerful Elon Musk.”

• The Republican megadonors Dick and Liz Uihlein employees of their company Uline interviewed anonymously about who they will vote for in the presidential election.

• Trump should admit defeat and “play golf” in Scotland if he loses the election. Reform UK leader and Trump ally Nigel Farage said Harris should pardon him to reduce the risk of unrest.

Stat of the day: Republicans have a 90 percent chance of controlling the Senate and a 52 percent chance of a majority in the House

With all eyes on the presidential election, it can be easy to overlook the battle for the House and Senate – but for Democrats, the forecast looks even more worrisome. As of Saturday evening, 538 gave Republicans a 90% chance of regaining control of the Senate and a 52% chance of retaining their majority in the House.

Don’t miss this: “It’s a little.” analogue“: This is what the Associated Press calls election winners in the USA

Have you ever wondered how election winners are named – especially when not all votes have been counted? Election nerds, rejoice! The Guardian sat down with the Associated Press, which, like many other newsrooms, it relies on for its election results. The AP explains how it calls elections, how that process has changed in the 148 years it's been running it, and why it hasn't.

• If you would like a quick summary of exactly how everything works, From the paths to victory to when we know who won, this explainer has you covered.

Climate check: Protesters ease the blockade of the world's largest coal port

Environmental protesters block the port of Newcastle in Australia, considered the world's largest coal exporter. The activists shortened their protest – in which they will paddle kayaks into the harbor to stop coal exports from the port – from 50 to 30 hours after police intervention.

Last thing: Who Deng? Edinburgh Zoo's pygmy hippopotamus Haggis could be an internet rival to Thailand's

Edinburgh Zoo in Scotland has announced the birth of a pygmy hippopotamus named Haggis, which could rival the popularity of Thailand's Moo Deng. The zoo announced their arrival with the words: “Muh Deng? Who? Introducing Haggis.” But not before jokingly apologizing for pitting the baby hippos against each other, saying, “There's room in this world for two beautiful pygmy hippo divas and we should all celebrate them.”

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