Europe could be a victim if Donald Trump wins the US election

As Trump 2.0 becomes a reality, Europe faces a new geopolitical and trade quagmire with its largest trading partner.

The new US president has promised to make his possible term in office the “golden age of America”. This is an important statement – ​​especially for countries in Europe that rely on US trade.

What will Trump do?

Trump has repeatedly touted a 10% to 20% increase in trade tariffs (what he calls the “prettiest word”) to protect America's domestic manufacturing industry. But this makes European goods more expensive and less attractive to American buyers.

During his first term, Trump imposed tariffs on European aluminum and steel. Although President Joe Biden subsequently suspended the tariffs, they have not yet been eliminated.

Tariffs are just the tip of the iceberg. Trump has talked about increasing tariffs on China by up to 60%, a measure the European Union has recently resorted to in the electric vehicle industry to stem the flood of cheap Chinese vehicles in its market.

But if the US enforces its high tariffs on China, it could trigger a full-blown trade war.

“In his first term, Trump was obsessed with the US trade deficit with the EU. In his view, this is no different from U.S. concerns about its trade deficit with China (except that they are smaller), said Zach Meyers, deputy director of the Center for European Reform Assets.

In 2022, the US trade deficit with China was $367.4 billion, while with the EU it was $131.3 billion. The tariffs could hit Germany, Europe's largest economy and a hub for automotive trade, particularly hard, as GDP could fall by up to 1.3%.

“If the US imposes more tariffs on China, there is a risk that a greater volume of Chinese exports will be dumped into Europe. That, in turn, could force the EU to follow the US in raising tariffs to protect European industry, increasing the risk of a full-scale trade war with China,” Meyers said.

Under a Trump-led America, Europe should focus on striking a good deal that exempts its goods from charging fees.

But that's easier said than done, emphasizes Meyers.

“Trump sympathizers like Viktor Orbán in Hungary and Giorgia Meloni in Italy will break ranks and make deals for their own countries, leaving the rest of the EU out in the cold.”

Will Trump encourage right-wing Europe?

The pro-Trump club and its push to the right are further cause for concern in Europe. Recent elections in the region have already shown the growing power of right-wing leaders, including in the Netherlands and Hungary.

People like Orbán, who posted on Facebook on Wednesday to celebrate Trump's “path to a beautiful victory,” have supported the Republican candidate, taking a page from his foreign policy book.

The election of Trump as American president could make “right-wing political forces feel emboldened,” said Steven Blockmans, associate senior research fellow at the Center for European Policy Studies Assets.

“You will feel empowered. I suspect they will be more attractive. There are very strong traits of autocracy in Trump's approach,” Blockmans said, warning that in addition to influence from across the Atlantic, other factors are also influencing the popularity of Europe's political figureheads.

The way Trump approaches the Russia-Ukraine war could also add to Europe's litany of problems. He previously blamed Ukraine for starting the war, vowed to stop funding its defense efforts and promised to end the war in a single day.

Russian President Vladimir Putin sees Trump's victory as an opportunity to “reshape” the country's relations with the United States. That could either end well for Europe as it continues to rely on U.S. defense guarantees, or it could end badly as it struggles to secure its borders with limited support from its transatlantic buddy.

Either way, a Trump presidency won't be a walk in the park for Europe – but how rocky the road will be remains to be seen.