Election 2024: What historic early voting can do – and what it can’t

Election Day in the US is officially Tuesday, but millions of Americans have already cast their votes. As the primary elections drew attention across the country, more than 62.7 million voters had cast ballots as of Thursday, a groundbreaking number.

Advocates on both sides have been quick to point to the early voting data as evidence that their side is gaining a decisive advantage. But what does it all mean? This is a difficult question to answer.

One thing we can say for sure: American voting habits have changed as behavioral changes due to the pandemic continue. This year's total number of early ballots is well below the 101.5 million early ballots cast in 2020, when the Covid virus kept many away from crowded polling stations, but it is more than the total number of early ballots cast in 2016 (47.2 million) or 2012 (46.2 million). ).

Although each state handles early voting differently, we can also learn a little about who is participating. Some states publish the raw totals of votes cast via absentee voting, in-person voting, or both. Many share voters' party registration and sometimes more detailed demographic information such as gender, race and age.

The rest of the picture, however, is much bleaker and any insight into this election season is best taken with a large dose of caution.

Many of the conclusions about early voting are drawn based on demographics alone. We won't find out which candidates these ballots were cast for until election day.

But here's what stands out to me from government reports compiled by the University of Florida Election Lab.

Republicans appear to be losing their reservations about early voting. In 2020, they accounted for 30.5% of all early votes in the 20 states that track party registration, versus 44.8% for Democrats. This was due in part to Trump's warning that mail-in voting was rife with corruption.

The former president is singing a different tune this year, and so have Republicans so far. They represent 36.1% of early votes cast nationwide, while Democrats make up 38.9% (the remaining quarter comes from voters who are unaffiliated or registered with a third party).

This is important because it means that the red mirage effect may be less pronounced. Four years ago, Republicans took an early lead in places like Pennsylvania because votes were counted on site on Election Day before poll workers counted the first ballots, which helped Democrats.

Meanwhile, Democrats may be emboldened by the gender gap this year — at least when it comes to early voter turnout.

In the six states reporting gender data, including battlegrounds Georgia, Michigan and North Carolina, women are casting 54.2% of early ballots so far. That's a few percentage points more than the 2020 mark, which was reached in one Post-election polls conducted by Edison Research.

If recent polls are accurate and women now support Democrats by a historically large margin, it could mean a boost for Vice President Kamala Harris.

Looking at the individual states, more than 50% of eligible voters in Georgia have now cast their votes – a sign that voter enthusiasm is high. The early voter turnout there is slightly whiter and older than the early voter population in 2020. That could help Donald Trump.

The former president also received good news from Nevada, where more registered Republicans than registered Democrats voted. That's a dramatic break from previous elections, in which Democrats built a large lead in early voting, particularly in the Las Vegas area, helping them prevail on Election Day despite a surge among rural conservatives.

However, like most early voting data, Nevada's tabulations come with an asterisk. A growing number of young voters are now nonpartisan independents, although they lean left. If they end up voting for Harris, that could put the state in Harris' column on Election Day.

There are similar examples of half-full or half-empty glasses all over the menu. In Pennsylvania, for example, more registered Democrats voted than Republicans – although by a narrower margin than in 2020, when President Joe Biden won the state.

And none of this takes into account independent voters, frustrated moderate suburban Republicans who might vote for Harris, or traditional blue-collar Democrats now on board with Trump.

And, lest we forget, 158 million Americans voted for president in 2020 – 65.9% of the voting population. Even if we don't reach that goal this time, there are still many potential ballots waiting to be cast.

Political junkies may be desperate to read the few days until the election, but for now the results are mostly just hot water.

North America correspondent Anthony Zurcher breaks down the race for the White House in his twice-weekly newsletter, US Election Unspun. Readers in the UK can Register here. People outside the UK can do this Register here.