Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq wobble as Iowa surprise dampens Trump trade

U.S. stocks were little changed on Monday, bracing for a week of potentially big market-moving events – the presidential election and the Federal Reserve's policy decision.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) hovered near the flat line after staging a comeback after a week of losses. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) rose slightly, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell 0.3%.

A solid earnings season so far and optimism about a rate cut are giving the market reason to cheer ahead of Tuesday's election, a big risk event for markets. The new president – whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump – will set the course for the economy in the coming years. The head-to-head race means investors will have to prepare for volatility on election day itself.

Read more: Yahoo Finance's guide to the presidential election and what it means for your wallet

But with just one session to go, weekend polls showed Harris with a surprising lead in Iowa and gaining ground elsewhere, a sign that the Democrat has a better chance of winning than Wall Street had calculated. The dollar fell by the most in a month as traders unwound bets on a Trump victory. Treasury yields also fell, with the benchmark 10-year yield (^TNX) falling nearly 10 basis points to 4.30%.

Also of great importance is the Fed's two-day monetary policy meeting, which begins a day later than usual given Wednesday's election.

Wall Street is confident that Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a 0.25% interest rate cut on Thursday despite signs of stubborn inflation and gloomy labor market signals. With this in mind, the focus is on the actions the Fed could take at future meetings, as the market now sees three fewer rate cuts by the end of 2025 than previously expected.

Read more: What the Fed's interest rate cut means for bank accounts, CDs, loans and credit cards

At the same time, profits continue to rise, with struggling AI server makers Super Micro Computer (SMCI), Arm (ARM) and Qualcomm (QCOM), among others, reporting this week. With 70% of the S&P 500 reporting quarterly results, the benchmark index is on track for a fifth straight quarter of earnings growth and recovering from the 2023 earnings recession.

Elsewhere, oil prices rose nearly 3% after OPEC+, a group of major oil producers, decided to postpone a planned production increase for at least a month and Iran escalated tensions in the Middle East by threatening a “devastating response.” “Warned about Israel’s attacks.

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Peloton jumps 9% on BofA upgrade

Shares of Peloton (PTON) rose 9% on Monday after analysts at Bank of America upgraded the stock to “buy” from “neutral” amid optimism about the fitness equipment maker's new leadership.

“Peloton's new CEO Peter Stern has no experience as a public company CEO, but meets all criteria set by Peloton's board,” including experience in consumer software and hardware and subscription services, the analysts wrote.

Stern, an avid Peloton user who comes from Ford (F), will begin his role as CEO on January 1st.
Constellation Energy and nuclear stocks fall after US rejects power deal with Amazon

Shares of Constellation Energy (CEG) fell as much as 12% early Monday as nuclear power stocks fell more broadly after the U.S. government rejected another nuclear power deal from Big Tech late Friday.

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) rejected a proposal from grid operator PJM to increase the amount of electricity supplied over the grid by Talen Energy (TLN) to an AI data center owned by Amazon (AMZN). Talen said in a statement Sunday that he believes the FERC made a “mistake” in its decision, adding that the company is “evaluating our options with a focus on commercial solutions.”

Talen Energy fell 9% in early trading, while Sam Altman-backed Oklo (OKLO) fell 8%, Centrus Energy (LEU) fell 19%, NANO Nuclear (NNE) fell 10%, Vistra (VST) fell 4% fell and NuScale Performance (SMR) fell 7%.

Despite Monday's decline, Constellation Energy shares are up more than 90% this year and are among the best-performing stocks in the S&P 500.

Read the full story here.
DJT stock is falling as the stock prepares for a volatile week

Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) shares fell around 2% in early trading on Monday after initially opening the day in the green. Stocks are bracing for another volatile week on Wall Street just a day before the presidential election.

The stock suffered its biggest percentage decline last week, closing Friday down about 20% at the end of the five-day period.

And since Tuesday, the company's market cap has fallen by more than $4 billion, although the stock is still more than double from its September lows.

Before the latest selloff, shares of the company, home of the Republican candidate's Truth Social social media platform, had been rising in recent weeks as both domestic and foreign betting markets shifted in favor of a Trump victory.

Prediction sites like Polymarket, PredictIt and Kalshi all showed Trump's presidential chances ahead of Democratic nominee and current Vice President Kamala Harris. However, that lead narrowed significantly over the weekend as new polls showed Harris overtaking Trump in Iowa, which has historically voted Republican.

Read more here.
Stocks are fluctuating as markets prepare for the US election and the Fed's policy meeting

U.S. stocks fell on Monday as investors prepared for this week's U.S. election and a Federal Reserve policy meeting.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) opened near the flat line, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) fell 0.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) slipped about 50 points.

Shares of Nvidia (NVDA) rose more than 1% at the open after news that the artificial intelligence chip heavyweight will join the Dow on Friday, replacing chip giant Intel (INTC). Energy stocks (XLE) also rose on Monday amid rising oil prices.

Investors are focused on the highly anticipated U.S. presidential election on Tuesday as well as the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday and Thursday. Markets largely expect policymakers to cut interest rates by 25 basis points.
First-time home buyers have had their lowest share of the housing market since 1981

Concerns about affordability are keeping more and more potential first-time home buyers out of the real estate market.

A new report showed that first-time home buyers made up 24% of all buyers this year, the lowest share since 1981, according to data from the 2024 National Association of Realtors (NAR) Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers.

High house prices, increased borrowing costs and low inventory levels have hit affordability over the past year, leaving many first-time buyers uncertain about purchasing a home. In July, the NAR surveyed more than 167,000 new homebuyers who said barriers to entry remained a challenge.

“During the period examined, mortgage rates rose to nearly 8% and housing affordability fell to historic lows. Homebuyers continued to struggle with housing inventory,” NAR Deputy Chief Economist Jessica Lautz told Yahoo Finance.

“At the same time, rental prices rose and after a student debt break, borrowers had to resume payments, making it difficult to save for a down payment,” Lautz added.

Mortgage rates have risen to between 6% and 7% this year – and now average mortgage rates are rising after hitting a two-year low in September. Meanwhile, entry-level buyers may also be bidding against those making cash offers.

“If a buyer had a solid financial foundation to enter the purchase market and there were multiple offers, there is a chance they were faced with an all-cash offer,” Lautz said.
Oil prices rise more than 2% as OPEC+ delays supply to the market

Oil futures rose more than 2.5% on Monday after OPEC+, a group of major oil producers, said it would delay the rollback of production cuts for a month.

West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) futures rose above $71 a barrel, while Brent (BZ=F), the international benchmark, was trading at around $75 a barrel.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, along with Russia and other countries, announced it would continue its production cuts for a month until the end of 2024.

The decision to delay production by 180,000 million barrels per day from December had already been postponed in recent months due to volatile oil prices.
Good morning Here's what's happening today.

Economic data: Factory orders (September), durable goods orders (September)

Earnings: Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A, BRK-B), Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF), Constellation Energy (CEG), Goodyear (GT), Hims & Hers (HIMS), Marriott International (MAR), Palantir (PLTR), Wynn ( WYNN)

Here are some of the biggest stories you may have missed over the weekend and this morning:

Why banks (probably) support Donald Trump

DJT Slides as Trump Media Traders Prepare for Election Day

Harris or Trump will shape the US energy debate – but perhaps not decide it

Oil prices rise as OPEC+ delays production increase, Iran escalates rhetoric

From stocks to cryptocurrencies, investors are bracing for election volatility

Nvidia CEO called on SK Hynix to accelerate delivery of HBM4 chips

Trump could send already high tariffs into the stratosphere