Category 2 storm moves into the Gulf of Mexico after making landfall in Cuba

Hurricane Rafael weakened as it moved into the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday after making landfall on Cuba's west coast as a strong Category 3 storm, knocking out power on the island due to heavy rains and winds.

Where is Hurricane Rafael and what path is it taking?

According to the latest update from the National Hurricane Center, Rafael — now a Category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph — is located about 200 miles west-northwest of Havana, Cuba, and moving west-northwest at 9 mph.

“A turn to the west is expected later today, with this general movement continuing throughout the weekend,” the hurricane center said.

The storm is then expected to “meander across the south-central Gulf of Mexico” this weekend and early next week.

Rafael made landfall on Wednesday in the Cuban province of Artemisa, east of Playa Majana, with maximum sustained winds of 180 km/h.

What impact is Rafael likely to have?

The storm is still expected to bring heavy rain to western Cuba on Thursday.

“An additional 2 to 4 inches of rainfall is expected today, resulting in storm accumulations totaling 12 inches across portions of western Cuba,” NHC forecasters said. “This can lead to flash flooding and mudslides, particularly in higher terrain.”

There are currently no coast watches or warnings related to Rafael, but the hurricane center said “interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico” should monitor its progress.

Will it affect the USA?

It's too early to say that. Long-range forecast models disagree on the ultimate path as Rafael encounters wind shear and drier air in the Gulf.

“Slight differences in the intensity of Rafael and atmospheric steering winds could have a significant impact on the final trajectory,” AccuWeather meteorologist Bill Deger told USA Today. “It is also possible that Rafael could be torn apart by strong winds high in the atmosphere and dissipate in the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall.”