Breeders' Cup analysis, odds, tips for Friday's 5 races | Mike Brunker | sport

DEL MAR, Calif. – The lavish buffet known as the Breeders' Cup returns to the Del Mar racetrack for the third time Friday. Five races featuring two-year-old horses serve as an appetizer before Saturday's nine-race main course, capped by the $7 million Breeders' Cup Classic.

The two-day event continues to evolve into the ambitious “World Championship” name that preceded the first Breeders' Cup in 1984. A record 80 international horses registered for the races, including runners from Europe, Japan, South America and Africa. They will compete against top runners from the United States and Canada for more than $34 million in prize money.

Friday's star attraction is the $2 million Breeders' Cup Juvenile, the winner of which becomes the early favorite for the 2025 Kentucky Derby. But in all five races on the first day there are wide fields that could bring huge gains.

With that in mind, here are my thoughts on Friday's Breeders' Cup races, which begin with the sixth race on the Del Mar card and are scheduled to be posted at 2:45 p.m

$1 million Juvenile Turf Sprint

Fast turf runners open the Breeders' Cup in this five-eighths-mile event featuring eight international competitors and four U.S.-based horses.

Kentucky native Ecoro Sieg is the morning favorite at 7-2 after comfortably winning her two starts in Japan at the front and breaking a 20-year-old two-year-old record with 1,200 meters (just under 6 furlongs) in 1: 07.2 at the Chukyo circuit in her second start, although she braked a bit slowly.

However, it's likely that she has company at the front from Governor Sam all the way out, and that could set the stage for a runner who isn't going as fast to catch her arriving late. I'll try Shareholder (15-1), who won the Group 2 Norfolk Stakes at England's Royal Ascot meeting in June before fading badly in the soft course Prix Morny (G1) at Deauville in France next. I'll throw in Ecoro Sieg and Europeans Aesterius (9-2), Big Mojo (4-1) and Whistlejacket (5-1) in the hopes of landing a juicy exacta right off the bat.

Young filly valued at $2 million

For the 1 1/16-mile Juvenile Fillies, the action moves to the dirt track.

The morning's 5-2 favorite Scottish Lassie, impressive winner of the Frizette Stakes (G1) at Aqueduct on her second start, drew the outside post in the field of 10 but should be able to hide behind the leaders before she Her power unleashes final blow in the stretch.

The Bob Baffert-trained Nooni (15-1) poses a front-line threat, while Alcibiades Stakes (G1) winner Immersive (3-1) and experienced Japanese runner American Bikini (5-1) are capable seem to be causing a stir. Quickick (10-1) could push exotic betting higher by breaking into the top three late.

Juvenile Fillies Turf valued at $1 million

Unbeaten Lake Victoria, the 8-5 morning favorite, trained by legendary Irish trainer Aidan O'Brien and ridden by Ryan Moore, should be able to use her speed effectively from the rail. She has won all four starts in Europe and will be an individual on many multi-race tickets.

I can't blow her away and agree that she is the horse to beat, but I will use the distance shots Heavens Gate (12-1), Abientot (30-1) and Vixen (15-1) in Exactas, to add even more value into the equation.

$2 million juvenile

Back in the dirt we set off for the 1 1/16 mile Juvenile.

East Avenue, the 5-2 morning favorite after his powerful top win in the Breeders Futurity at Keeneland in his second start, pulled out the rail and should get a nice, ground-saving ride. However, it is unlikely that the homebred Godolphin will be able to establish a clear lead as early as he did in that race, when the speedy Baffert runner Getaway Car (20-1) was placed just ahead of him.

He may be good enough to prevent that, but I think Ferocious (6-1) will be a big threat from distance and can get to the top in depth. The Chad Brown-trained Chancer McPatrick (3-1) figures to be late and could hit them all if the early tempo is fast.

$1 million for youth turf

In recent years the Europeans have dominated this one-mile turf race and are likely to take the lion's share of the money once again.

The secret to winning the Juvenile Turf has often been as simple as identifying the best horse trained by Aidan O'Brien, as the trainer has set a record six times, all with jockey Ryan Moore in the irons.

Unfortunately for him (and the handicappers who use this angle), his prized stallion Henri Matisse (6-1) moved into 13th place in the 14-horse field, meaning he will likely lose ground in at least the first turn.

When O'Brien didn't win the race, British trainer Charles Appleby often did the deed. Appleby, who has prepared three Juvenile Turf winners for global breeding and racing powerhouse Godolphin, sends Al Qudra (4-1) to Post 4 and Aomori City (10-1) to Post 12.

I'll try to do a three-pack to round out the day using those three above and Seagulls Eleven (15-1), the fast US runner Mentee (15-1) and New Century, the 5-2 favorite then, adding victory over Al Qudra in the Summer Stakes (G1) at Woodbine in September, in the lower ranks.

Mike Brunker is a retired Review-Journal editor who now spends a lot of time poolside with the Daily Racing Form.