AP VoteCast: Economic fear and desire for change bring Trump victory

WASHINGTON (AP) — A dissatisfied electorate wanted the former president Donald Trump to return to the White House, an apparent rejection of the vice president Kamala Harris and her nearly four years with President Joe Biden.

The Republican's victory came from a public so turned off by America's trajectory that it welcomed his bold and disruptive approach. About three in 10 voters said they want a complete shakeup in the way the country is run, according to AP VoteCast, a comprehensive survey of more than 120,000 voters across the country. Even if they weren't hoping for anything so dramatic, more than half of voters overall said they wanted to see significant change.

Both nationally and in key battleground states, the Republican won over voters who were concerned about it Business and prioritized more aggressive enforcement of Immigration laws. Those issues largely overshadowed many voters' focus on the future of democracy and abortion protections – important priorities for Harris' voters but not enough to swing the election in her favor.

However, Trump's victory was not an absolute mandate. Even as Trump prevailed in the Electoral College, there were concerns about how he would wield his power. Most voters said they were very or somewhat concerned that Trump's election would move the U.S. closer to an authoritarian country where a single leader has unchecked power. Nevertheless, more than one in ten voters supported him.

Voters preferred Trump on their biggest concern: the economy

Fears about inflation were high across the country, and voters generally believed that Trump was better equipped than Harris to handle the economy and jobs. The key swing states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan largely reflected the mood of the nation.

The share of voters who said their family's financial situation was “behind” rose to about three in 10, up from about two in 10 in the last presidential election. Many voters were still suffering from inflation rose to a four-decade high in June 2022. About 9 in 10 voters were very or somewhat worried about food costs, and about 8 in 10 were worried about their health care costs, their housing costs or the cost of gas.

Trump has eroded Democrats' traditional advantage over key groups

Trump won a small but significant share of younger, black and Hispanic voters, many of whom were depressed about the economy. The majority of younger black voters and Latino voters said the economy was not working well.

For these groups, the economy was also more prominent than in the 2020 election. Four years ago, COVID-19 and racism were important issues for Black and Latino voters. But this time they focused more on the economy, and Trump managed to gain traction with both groups, although the majority remained with Harris.

Among voters under 30, a little less than half voted for Trump, an improvement from his performance in 2020. About three-quarters of young voters said the country was moving in the wrong direction and about a third said they wanted one complete upheaval in the way the country is run.

There was also a divide between young men and women over which candidate they supported. About six in 10 women ages 18 to 29 voted for Harris, and more than half of men in that age group supported Trump.

Stricter immigration policies became more popular, particularly in swing states

Voters were more likely to support tough immigration policies than they were four years ago, which is consistent with this Trump's tough approach.

About 4 in 10 voters said immigrants living in the U.S. illegally should be deported to the country they came from, up from about 3 in 10 in 2020. And while most voters said immigrants living in the U.S. illegally should be deported a If you have the chance to do so, you should apply for legal status, which has decreased compared to 2020.

Trump has blamed the increase in illegal border crossings at the US border with Mexico as a cause of crime falsely accused Haitian immigrants in Ohio eat dogs and cats. That position may have been reflected in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin — three states far from the southern border, where about 8 in 10 Trump voters said they supported deportation over the ability to apply for legal status.

A more isolationist electorate

Trump's return to the White House will likely challenge the established world order, as he did questioned the commitment for the defense of other NATO countries and demanded extensive tariff increases on both allies and competitors. Voters were more likely to adopt many of Trump's isolationist stances than in 2020. About 4 in 10 voters wanted the U.S. to take a “less active role” in solving the world's problems in 2020 still about 3 out of 10.

Most Trump supporters opposed continued aid to Ukraine in the war against Russia, undoing the Biden administration's policies Strengthening and expanding NATO. But there were limits to their isolationist stance: a majority of Trump voters supported continued support for Israel in the war against Hamas and Hezbollah.

Trump isn't a mediator, but some voters didn't see his mistakes as dealbreakers

Some of Trump's voters acknowledged his mistakes even as they decided to send him back to Washington.

Nearly half of voters said they were “very concerned” that another Trump presidency would bring the U.S. closer to authoritarianism. About one in ten people in this group voted for him anyway. About 6 in 10 voters said he was not honest and trustworthy, but about 2 in 10 in that group supported him. A majority of voters said he did not have the moral character to be president, and about one in 10 voters supported him.

For all his promises, Trump will likely struggle to inject a new sense of unity and optimism into the nation as a whole. When asked whether he would bring about positive change, voters were about evenly split.

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AP Survey Editor Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and AP Reporter Hannah Fingerhut contributed to this report.

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AP VoteCast is a survey of American voters conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago for Fox News, PBS NewsHour, The Wall Street Journal and The Associated Press. The survey of more than 120,000 voters lasted eight days and ended when the polls closed. The interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. The survey combines a random sample of registered voters from state voter files; self-identified registered voters using NORC's probability-based AmeriSpeak panel, designed to be representative of the U.S. population; and self-identified registered voters selected from non-probability online panels. The margin of sampling error for voters is estimated to be plus or minus 0.4 percentage points. For more details on APVoteCast's methodology, visit https://ap.org/votecast.