The best AI investment: Nvidia, Microsoft or Google?

In this analysis, I will use TipRanks' stock comparison tool to closely examine three leading AI investing opportunities. Although Nvidia (NVDA) has posted an impressive five-year return of 2,524%, compared to less than 200% for Microsoft (MSFT) and Google (GOOGL), I'm not convinced it's the best long-term choice at this point represents. In contrast, Microsoft and Google offer greater medium to long-term stability. So I'm more bullish on these established Big Tech giants than on newer AI-focused semiconductor vendor Nvidia.

Nvidia stock is trading on borrowed time

I'm currently neutral on Nvidia, even though the company has delivered notable returns in recent years. Nvidia reported nearly 200% year-over-year revenue growth in the last 12 months and a net profit margin of 55% (versus a five-year average of 31.4%). Although 2025 is expected to be a strong year and the new Blackwell GPU is already sold out, the company is approaching a potential tipping point. Anyone familiar with semiconductor investments will recognize their cyclical nature.

Although it is uncertain when Nvidia might see a decline in sales, I think it is likely in the medium term. As big tech companies eventually curb their AI capital spending, Nvidia could experience a typical cyclical downturn. While future AI infrastructure spending cycles are expected, the current recovery is unlikely to continue without significant fluctuations in demand – particularly if the first AI downturn coincides with a broader economic recession.

I believe Nvidia stock still has room for gains over the next few years, although I find its risk profile worrisome. Market volatility could impact the stock through 2026, with 2027 and especially 2028 likely to be more difficult. For now, however, my rating is Hold, with a conservative price target of $155 for October 2025 and a bull case target of $175.

How do Wall Street analysts rate Nvidia stock?

Wall Street remains extremely bullish on Nvidia, with an average NVDA price target of $153.86, suggesting upside potential of 13.6%. The consensus rating is Strong Buy based on 39 Buy reviews, three Hold reviews, and no Sells. This argues for holding Nvidia until a possible medium-term downturn becomes clearer.

See more NVDA analyst ratings

Microsoft is focused on long-term stability

I'm particularly bullish on Microsoft and view it as a long-term buy-and-hold investment rather than just a short- to medium-term play like Nvidia. As the AI ​​leader in Big Tech, Microsoft is well-positioned for sustainable growth without the strong cyclicality faced by AI semiconductor companies like Nvidia. Instead of relying on capital expenditures from big tech companies, Microsoft benefits from recurring revenue through its AI-driven cloud subscription services.

Microsoft's management under Satya Nadella was exceptional. Since he became CEO in 2014, the company's market cap has increased from $381 billion to over $3 trillion in 2024. Nadella's decisive shift to cloud computing is now clearly paying off, reinforced by Microsoft's significant stake in OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT.

I see Microsoft as a stable, long-term investment. The strong 10-year free cash flow annual growth rate of 14% and margin of 28.6% support an optimistic outlook. While the price-to-free cash flow ratio of 42 is above the 10-year median of 28.5 due to significant AI investments, these are expected to boost returns over time. At the moment, my rating is Buy with a bullish price target of $490 for October 2025.

How do Wall Street analysts rate Microsoft shares?

Wall Street is also bullish on Microsoft, with an average MSFT price target of $503, suggesting upside potential of 22.6%. This is based on 27 Buy ratings, three Holds and no Sells. This reinforces Microsoft's current strength as an investment, according to the banking community's consensus.

See more MSFT analyst ratings

Google is potentially vulnerable, but offers great value

Of the three AI investments we examined today, I'm particularly bullish on Google. While I have long-term concerns about the competitive threat posed by OpenAI's ChatGPT potentially taking market share away from Google Search, the investment remains extremely attractive given its clear Big Tech valuation.

With a P/E ratio of 22.7 – well below its 10-year median of 28.7 – the stock appears attractively valued. Additionally, the company's non-GAAP EPS has grown 32.3% annually over three years, compared to a 10-year average of 27.6%. This combination of accelerating growth and declining valuation currently represents an attractive opportunity for investors.

While Google will likely deliver higher earnings growth than Microsoft over the next three to five years, Microsoft will undoubtedly lead in free cash flow generation. Compared to Nvidia, Google could grow more slowly in the short term; However, in the long run, I think Google is the most stable Big Tech investment. As a long-term investor focused on safe and reliable passive returns, I prefer Google for my portfolio – my October 2025 price target for the stock is $190.

How do Wall Street analysts rate Google shares?

On Wall Street, Google receives a Strong Buy rating based on a consensus of 26 Buy ratings, six Hold ratings, and zero Sell ratings. With an average GOOGL price target of $207.40, the stock offers a potential return of 21.1% over the next year. This positive outlook further strengthens my independent investment thesis on Google and confirms that it is currently a valuable portfolio asset.

See more GOOGL analyst ratings

Takeaway: Nvidia for growth, Microsoft for balance, Google for value

For investors focused on near-term growth momentum, Nvidia could be an attractive option. However, as a long-term value investor, I'm more inclined towards Microsoft and Google. While it may be tempting to benefit from Nvidia's growth through semiconductor sales driven by AI infrastructure expansion, I prefer the slower, more stable growth that comes from recurring revenue opportunities in the AI ​​space, led by Microsoft and , even more so, the undervalued Google.

Disclosure