November 7th Record warm morning, cooler weekend AND update on Hurricane Rafael

November 7, 2024

Report from Thursday morning

We are on the verge of a cold front that will change our weather back to reality this weekend. But after hitting a record high of 81°F in Baltimore yesterday, we're starting this morning with another record warm low temperature.

The temperature dropped to 63°F at 3:45 a.m. and has since risen before sunrise. The record warmest “low temperature” on this day was 62°F in 1938. If we don't cool down to that mark again by midnight, it would be a new record. Note: If you go to the Ravens game tonight, it will be pleasantly mild.

For comparison, the “average” low temperature for this date is 39°F. So we are about 25 degrees above average.

Temperatures at 6 a.m

Baltimore Drought Update

The new map is released today and I will publish it this afternoon.

• No measurable rain since October 2nd = 36 days!
• There was a “trail” on October 4th and November 1st.
• Precipitation down -6.66 inches since September 1st

Morning surface weather

The cold front that will end this heatwave may bring a few more showers, but the drought will continue.

While the low temperatures are still reminiscent of late summer, cooler air will penetrate behind the cold front in the next few days.

Further west, we see the snowstorm has moved south of Denver into New Mexico.

Hurricane Rafael passed Cuba as a Category 3 storm. This morning it is down to Category 2 and moving into the central Gulf of Mexico… The latest track is well south of the US, so it has less potential to meet our rain needs.

I want to focus on the hurricane first, then local weather and the extended weather forecast below.

Hurricane Rafael satellite

• Hurricane-force winds reach only 30 miles from the center.
• The wind strength of a tropical storm reaches a distance of 115 miles from the center.

National Hurricane Center update at 4 a.m. EST

• LOCATION…24.2N 84.6W
• ABOUT 155 MI…250 KM W-NW OF HAVANA CUBA
• APPROXIMATELY 180 MI…285 KM W. OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
• MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…105 MPH…165 KM/H
• CURRENT MOTION…NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
• MINIMUM CENTRAL PRINT…969 MB…28.62 INCHES

Tropical satellite loop

Forecast intensity

Forecast traces

Dissemination of computer models

Because there is a lot of uncertainty surrounding this storm, the time and place of impact are hardly reliable.

National Hurricane Center

NHC considers the storm center to be further south of New Orleans.

SUMMARY OF APPLICABLE MONITORING AND ALERTS:

A tropical storm warning is in effect for…

* Dry Tortugas

LOCAL WEATHER

Weather forecast for the afternoon

Still well above average, but starting to decline a bit again.

RAVENS SCHEDULE TIMES TONIGHT:

Lower 60s

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY, November 7th

Sunrise at 6:42 a.m

Sunset at 4:59 p.m

Normal low in Baltimore: 39°F

Record temperature of 22°F in 1962

Normal high temperature in Baltimore: 60°F

Record 81ºF 2022

FRIDAY NOVEMBER 8TH

It cools down a bit as the breeze increases and ushers in the new air mass.

Morning lows

Wind forecast 8:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m

Snapshot at midday

Afternoon highs

Weekend outlook

Saturday morning

High pressure sets in. This should bring mostly sunny skies and seasonally cool temperatures.

ECMWF model forecast: Saturday to Monday

This is the model that appears to agree with the National Hurricane Center, keeping Rafael well to the south. This limits additional moisture in the next weather system. Therefore, the rain will be limited on Sunday evening.

Sunday morning

A dry and cool start, but good news for the Bay Bridge Run.

Sunday evening

The chance of rain will be later in the day and towards the evening. As we can see, the moisture looks split. Some areas may see more rain, while pockets of dry air could hold back precipitation in others… So there are no promises of wet weather. Rainfall will be light, with up to 0.25 inches of precipitation.

7 day forecast

It's cooler this weekend and will remain more seasonable as it warms next week. However, there is still not much rain in sight.

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FIRST FROST DATES

Here is the average data across Maryland, and it matches the evidence we saw last week.

Click on this image to see more details about Maryland and Pennsylvania.

FOUR SUPERMOONS OF 2024

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Plan for a weather-dependent stem assembly

Severe weather: Storm Smart in October and next spring

Winter weather FITF (Faith in the Flakes): November to March

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THANK YOU VERY MUCH:

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Maryland Trek 11, Day 7, completed Saturday, August 10th

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The annual event: Hike and bike 329 miles in 7 days between Wisp Summit and Ocean City.

Every day we honor a child and their family's cancer journey.

The fundraising is intended for Just In Power Kids: funding free holistic programs. I have never taken a dime and never will. It's all up to our nonprofit.

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REPEATING MY MESSAGE ON THE TOPIC OF LEGEND

I understand that there are some spelling and grammatical errors, as well as occasional other errors. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer errors I may miss. I've made a few public statements over the years, but if you're new here you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out about it in my sophomore year at Cornell University. However, that didn't stop me from getting my degree in meteorology and being the first to receive the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington area.

One of my professors told me that I had made it this far without knowing it and that I shouldn't let it be a crutch for the future. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely right! I miss my mistakes when proofreading myself. The automatic spell checker on my computer sometimes misses the mark and makes the problem worse. I can also make mistakes in forecasting. Nobody is perfect at predicting the future. All maps and information are correct. The “wordy” stuff can get sticky.

There was no editor to review my work when writing and have it ready to ship in a newsworthy time frame. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this website. She has made it her mission to correct typos when available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept that and perhaps prove that what you read is really mine… It's part of my charm. #FITF