Four best bets for a packed NBA slate on the eve of Election Day

Because the NBA takes its civic duty seriously, there will be no games on Election Day, November 5th, which is annoying because I would love a FOX News-South Park-NBA multiple view. What could be better than seeing former President Donald Trump battle it out with Vice President Kamala Harris in swing states for the future of our country while playing basketball? Nothing for me.

I'm probably jinxing myself if I mention it, but I attended an NBA betting competition this weekend. Friday through Sunday I went 9-3 in the Association, all spread across X, @Geoffery_Clark. As a result, I have now played four games over .500 this season and have gotten out of the gambling hole. Let's talk about my favorite looks for Monday.

Best NBA bets for November 4th

• Put on 1.08 units (u). Miami Heat money line (-108) against the Sacramento Kings on FanDuel.
• Bet 1.1u on the UNDER 231.5 (-110) in the Toronto Raptors vs. Denver Nuggets at DraftKings.
• Bet 0.89u on the Orlando Magic wing Franz Wagner UNDER 19.5 points (-118) against the Oklahoma City Thunder at BetMGM.
• Bet 1.1u on the San Antonio Spurs +3.5 (-110) against the Los Angeles Clippers at Caesars Sportsbook.

Kings at Heat (-108)8:15 p.m. ET

My numbers say Miami should be at least a -3 favorite on Monday. The Heat have better coaching and defense, both teams are fully healthy and neither has beaten a tough opponent. Sacramento big Domantas Sabonis is a tough duel for most teams. But not Miami, which has one of the best defensive players in the NBA, Bam Adebayo.

Additionally, the Heat defeated the Kings in both meetings last season. Miami won 121-110 in Sacramento last season without Terry Rozier, Tyler HerroAnd Jimmy Butler. This goes back to my point about the Heat having “better coaching.” Miami head coach Erik Spoelstra finds ways to win no matter who is playing.

Prediction: Heat 116, Kings 112

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UNDER 231.5 at Raptors at Nuggets, 10 p.m. ET

These teams met last week and Denver won 127-125 in overtime. This game had a total score of 223.5, an increase of 8.0 points for this meeting currently. According to Pregame.com, as of 12:10 p.m. ET, more than 85% of the action for Raptors-Nuggets Part II is in the over. I like to bet the opposite of what happened in these rematches, a short turnaround as teams make adjustments.

In the playoffs they call it that Zigzag Theory. As the playoff series progresses, games are rated lower as teams figure out each other's tendencies. Granted, this isn't a playoff series, but their two games are just seven days apart. Raptors-Nuggets Part I scored a combined 228 points at the end of regular time.

Denver Nuggets C Nikola Jokic pushes Toronto Raptors winger Scottie Barnes under the basket at Scotiabank Arena. (John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images)

Therefore, they would need another extra time on Monday to concede the over. With that in mind, their first meeting had a near league average speed of 99.6 (the NBA average speed is 99.8). But the Nuggets rank 20th in pace and 6th in offensive turnover rate, so there's a good chance the pace will slow.

Their first meeting ended as Denver scored 20 second-chance points and Toronto had 22 second-chance points. The rebound is part effort, part coincidence. I expect both teams to do a better rebounding job in the second leg. Finally, the Raptors rank 29th in 3-point attempt rate (3PAr) and threes per game, while the Nuggets rank last in 3PAr and 22nd in threes per game.

Prediction: Nuggets 119, Raptors 106

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Magic at Thunder, 9:15 p.m. ET

Oklahoma City's defensive rating of 94.9 is by far the best in the NBA. The next closest team is the Golden State Warriors with a defensive rating of 101.9. OKC attaches the staples to the Magic Wing Franz Wagnerwho has scored more than 15 points once in his four matches. Wagner is shooting 37.9% from the field and 16.7% from behind the arc in those games.

Plus, with All-Star's injury Paolo BancheroOrlando doesn't have a point guard or Wagner will have some point guard duties. Banchero's injury forces Wagner to play power forward, and the Thunder give up the fewest points per game to opposing power forwards. Finally, Wagner has scored 17 or fewer points in four straight games.

Best Bet: Magic Wing Franz Wagner UNDER 19.5 points (-118)

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Spurs (+3.5) at the Clippers, 10:30 p.m. ET

San Antonio is a better team than Clippers All-Star Kawhi Leonard does not play and Kawhi is out indefinitely. Spurs' Victor Wembanyama is the best player on the field and both teams have below average speed, 3PAr and free throw attempt percentage.

Los Angeles Clippers PG James Harden drives to the basket against San Antonio Spurs great Victor Wembanyama at the Frost Bank Center in Texas. (Scott Wachter-Imagn Images)

Still, San Antonio is more efficient. According to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG), the Spurs have better offensive and defensive stats in the halfcourt. LAC also makes 5.0 fewer wide-open 3-pointers per game than San Antonio. Additionally, according to CTG, the Clippers rank 25th in shot quality, while the Spurs rank third.

Finally, the market may be overreacting to Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich's health issue, which will keep him out of action for the near future. According to Pregame.com, more than 90% of the action takes place on the Clippers and the line doesn't budge. But that's the advantage of the Spurs having PG Chris Paul; He is a coach on the floor.

Prediction: Spurs 113, Clippers 111

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery ClarkFor more betting content and random rants, check out my OutKick Bets Podcast. I'm adding over X bets to my 2024-25 NBA betting record throughout the season.