Donald Trump's victory is a catastrophe

There is no icing. This is a major victory for the right, which calls into question Britain's political security and prosperity. Suddenly we seem to be a social democratic outlier, surrounded by angrier, more confident and belligerent neighbors. What will be will be. The world is what it is. There is no point now in discussing the political failures and delusions of the Kamala Harris campaign. What is important is to think clearly about the decisions Britain makes next.

We shouldn't feel sorry for ourselves either. Any sadness, any sympathy should be reserved for our liberal brothers and sisters in the United States, who face a much bleaker future; and of course for the people of Ukraine, who may be forced into a humiliating and destructive “peace.” I spoke this week with Sergei Markov, a former adviser to the Russian president and a well-connected Moscow politics professor. He said he expected Donald Trump to call Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky almost immediately and demand an immediate ceasefire, followed by talks that would essentially recognize the Ukraine conflict as a civil conflict between Russians rather than independent states.

There will be calls in London for European countries, particularly Britain, to take the lead in new military measures to protect Ukraine, urgently sending more long-range missiles and allowing shelling of Russian sites. But without US support, this will be incredibly dangerous for Western Europe. Of all the urgent debates now underway, this is the most urgent of all. There are no good answers. Unless he dramatically changes his mind, a Trump-imposed deal giving Putin the eastern third of Ukraine would certainly lead to the downfall of Zelensky, further Russian advances, and then the push of Russian – and now North Korean – troops against NATO's borders .

With that possibility imminent, there will be emergency talks in Whitehall and Downing Street this week. There were also preparations for the impact of the 20 percent tariffs on British imports that Trump is said to want to impose. The public motto is: “Keep calm and carry on”: Keir Starmer optimistically emphasized “common values” in his congratulatory message to Trump. Behind the scenes, the mood may be a little different.

This is also a major cultural victory for the right and we should not ignore it. Trump’s triumphant return is a reassertion of patriarchal, nationalist instincts against a world he portrays as infected by “cultural Marxism.” This is bad news for migrants wherever they are. This is bad news for women who want to have control over their bodies. This is bad news for the liberal, scientific, post-Enlightenment mindset. Ideas count: The right is now in control of the Washington machine and, through Trump's close ally and cheerleader Elon Musk, is a major amplifier of the new media. How this affects debate in the rest of the West on issues such as gender, Islam, borders and the Middle East remains to be seen, but it has implications for everyone. Musk, on the other hand, Britain's bitter enemy, is becoming an even bigger global player.

In our part of the world, the conclusion of the US presidential election campaign is a big win for nationalists like Hungary's Viktor Orbán, who is planning a new major conservative gathering there soon. There is a good counterfactual argument that Trump will be beneficial to the EU if he drives feuding France and Germany closer together, forces Brussels to look up over minutiae, and makes the continent think more deeply about its role in the world. But I suspect the adrenaline rush will be even stronger for anti-Brussels nationalists. In Great Britain, too, the Trump triumph will revitalize and inspire a right that has been scattered and demoralized by the general election. It makes Keir Starmer's project to strengthen Britain on the world stage infinitely more complicated. It gives Reform UK in general, and Nigel Farage in particular, an obvious new relevance to British affairs; How, I wonder, will the Tories react under Kemi Badenoch?

What happened overnight, while not unforeseen, was still a catastrophe. For left-wing social democrats in Britain it presents a number of immediate and medium-term dilemmas; The world feels a little colder. I was pleased to see JD Vance, who will be Vice President, reach out generously to Democrats and his opponents. And it's not impossible now that Trump will make good on his promise to “heal America” ​​overnight, and that the angrier, more vindictive man we've become accustomed to will relax in the cushions of his remarkable victory.

Those on the center left must also try to remain clear-headed and generous. It will be difficult. No matter how pessimistic people may think intellectually, volitional optimism is never a bad idea.