Hurricane Rafael is heading toward the Gulf after making landfall in Cuba

Hurricane Rafael entered Cuba at Category 3 intensity and then brushed against the Florida Keys as it headed toward the Gulf of Mexico, where weakening is expected to begin due to several atmospheric and oceanic factors.

(Perspective: Seasons that have reached 11 hurricanes)

Landing: Hurricane Rafael strengthened to Category 3 early Wednesday afternoon with winds of 115 miles per hour and made landfall a little more than three hours later in Artemisa province in western Cuba near Playa Majana, according to the National Hurricane Center. Wind gusts of over 70 miles per hour were reported in the Cuban capital Havana.

Rafael is the fifth hurricane of Category 3 or stronger in the Atlantic this season, following Beryl, Helene, Kirk and Milton.

Impact on Cuba and the Florida Keys: Hurricane conditions (wind speeds of 120 km/h or more) and a life-threatening storm surge are expected in western Cuba until Wednesday evening. Heavy rains could also cause flash floods and mudslides in parts of Cuba.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys.

Rafael's future in the Gulf: Rafael is then expected to turn westward and weaken in the Gulf as it will likely experience increasingly unfavorable high-altitude winds, some dry air, and slightly cooler waters in the Gulf of Mexico.

Rafael could move slowly over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend into early next week.

There is an increasing chance that if Rafael stays far enough south, it will retain some strength and eventually drift southwest toward Mexico's Gulf Coast next week.

There remains a chance that Rafael, in a severely weakened form, will either be drawn toward the northern Gulf Coast or completely fizzle out in the western Gulf next week.

(​MORE: Why Rafael isn't expected to be another Helene or Milton)

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