The demographic groups that led Trump to the presidency – DW – November 6, 2024

Donald Trump is the new US president and that is partly due to his ability to distract voters from the Democratic Party base.

Not only has he won the required 270 Electoral College votes to win the presidency, but he is also on the verge of winning the popular vote for the first time.

So how did Donald Trump achieve his first popular presidency?

It wasn't just his ability to win key swing states like the Blue Wall of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, Trump also made inroads into key groups across the country.

He continued to resist the belief that he had exhausted the pool of rural and suburban voters at his disposal. Compared to 2020, he increased his vote in both the suburbs and the countryside.

And his performance in groups that traditionally lean left will worry Democrats.

Young people are turning away from the Democrats

The youth vote, often viewed as a primary for left-leaning parties in the Western world, was the worst for Democrats in this election. Data shows Kamala Harris leads Trump 52-46 in this demographic.

This six-point lead compares to Biden's 25-point lead over Trump in 2020 and Hillary Clinton's 18-point lead in 2016.

The Democrats' lead was also narrowest among the 30 to 44 voter group in the three Trump elections – just four points compared to Biden's 12 points.

However, it wasn't really good news for Republicans when it came to age. Trump's narrowest lead was among retirees – just two points over Harris, compared to his eight-point lead over Clinton eight years ago.

“I noticed that the younger population didn't align with Democrat Harris as much as they did (with) Biden,” William Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution, told DW.

“When (Democrats) switched from Biden to Harris, that should have helped motivate the younger population to turn out. Of course, we don’t really know what the turnout of this group is yet, but we do know how they are doing.”

Abortion didn't drive young women to Harris either

A pro-choice stance on reproductive health in the wake of the Supreme Court's Roe v Wade ruling was seen as an advantage for Harris in the election, and Democrats chased the women's vote hard.

Harris herself drew support from major celebrities: Taylor Swift endorsed the Democrats, directly referencing the party's stance on reproductive health. So do Beyoncé, Oprah, Jennifer Lopez, Megan Thee Stallion and Cardi B.

The numbers show her lead among women ages 18 to 44 was half that of Biden's four years ago.

There was also a drop of one point among women over 45.

By comparison, men 18 to 44 switched to Trump after accounting for a small but important part of Biden's victory in 2020. Biden's seven-point lead in this group disappeared on November 5, with Trump holding a six-point lead over Harris while his share of men over 45 increased.

Trump is building his base among the working class

When Trump defeated Clinton in 2016, one of his hallmarks was his ability to draw the Blue Wall states into his fold. Central to this achievement was his “America First” policy, which promised to block imports from overseas and revive local manufacturing.

Here and across America, he has now won the majority of non-college-educated voters in three consecutive elections.

While Joe Biden managed to win back some of those voters in 2020 while increasing the college-educated vote, Harris saw both declines this year.

In fact, it was the Democrats' worst performance with this group in the three Trump elections. Harris only got 43% of those voters, while Trump increased his share to 55%. His lead over the Democratic candidate is twice as large as his victory in 2016, while his college vote remains steady at 41%.

Latinos and black men lean toward Trump

A Kamala Harris presidency would have broken the glass ceiling while making her the first woman, Black and Asian American to hold the White House.

None of this is meant to be.

And worrisome for Democrats will be data showing that their traditional base among people of color continues to trend toward Republicans.

Black and Latino voters have not deserted Democrats, but they voted for Trump in larger numbers this year. These groups each make up around a tenth of the electorate.

In 2020, 90% of Black voters went for Biden, now that number is closer to 80%, largely due to losses among men. In some swing states, Trump was able to double his share of black men, albeit from a low base.

A narrow majority of 51% of Latino men voted for Harris, compared to 46% for Trump and 56% overall. 63% of Latino voters supported Biden four years ago.

As with the youth vote, Frey was surprised that this demographic appeared to be less motivated by the Harris campaign.

“That didn’t seem to be the case,” Frey said.

“It depends on what the problems are. The candidate is trying to pick issues that might work with these people.”

Edited by: Andreas Illmer