Why AP called Wisconsin and the White House for Donald Trump

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Associated Press declared this Republican Donald Trump won Wisconsin – and with it a return to the White House – after determining that the remaining uncounted votes, mostly from the greater Milwaukee area, would not be enough to allow Vice President Kamala Harris to overtake Trump.

With nearly all of the votes counted early Wednesday, the AP declared Trump the winner of Wisconsin's 10 electoral votes at 5:34 a.m. ET, enough to push the former president over the 270-vote threshold needed to recapture the presidency was required.

Winning Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania had been the vice president's most direct path to victory, but the AP had already declared Trump the winner in Pennsylvania at 2:24 a.m. ET. The winner of Michigan was still undetermined at the time Wisconsin was declared.

In the hours before the AP's election call in Wisconsin, a significant amount of uncounted ballots remained in Milwaukee and Racine counties, among others. To win, Harris would have had to win the vast majority of those uncounted ballots. That was still possible, considering Milwaukee County is one of the state's most reliably Democratic strongholds. As for Racine, while the county generally favors Republicans, it has historically reported votes leaning heavily toward Democrats toward the end of the count.

Subsequent voting updates from Racine heavily favored Harris — but not enough to allow her to get past Trump, even accounting for additional, uncounted votes from Milwaukee County that would have benefited the vice president.

The AP only declares a winner when it can determine that a trailing candidate cannot close the gap and overtake the vote leader.

Here's a look at what the AP called this race:

CANDIDATES: Harris (D) vs. Trump (R) vs. Randall Terry (Constitution) vs. Chase Oliver (Libertarian) vs. Jill Stein (Greens) vs. Claudia De la Cruz (Party for Socialism and Liberation) vs. Cornel West (Justice for All) vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (We the People).

POLL CLOSURE: 9:00 p.m. ET

ABOUT THE RACE:

Wisconsin was one of three Midwestern “blue wall” states that supported Trump in 2016 and President Joe Biden in 2020, and remained a hotly contested presidential battleground in 2024. Both Trump and Harris and their colleagues made it frequent stops in Wisconsin, including several in the populous areas of Milwaukee, Madison and Green Bay. The margin of victory in previous presidential elections was less than one percentage point in 2020, 2016, 2004 and 2000.

In 2016, Democrat Hillary Clinton lost statewide despite winning Milwaukee County with 66% of the vote, Dane County, home of Madison, with 71% and LaCrosse with 52%. Four years later, Joe Biden improved Clinton's performance in the three districts by three to five percentage points, helping him to a narrow statewide victory. Trump won Brown County, home to Green Bay, with about 52% of the vote in 2016 and 2020, and Biden beat Clinton's result there by about 4 percentage points.

For Republican candidates, winning the conservative “WOW” counties of Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington in the Milwaukee suburbs can help offset strong Democratic support in Milwaukee and Dane counties.

WHY AP PLANNED THE RACE:

In addition to Racine, Trump was also clearly ahead in the other southeastern counties that make up the state's most stable Republican stronghold. This region includes the so-called “WOW” counties, but not Milwaukee County itself. Trump also had a large lead in northeastern Wisconsin, including in Brown County, home of Green Bay. He also gained crucial information in the Republican constituencies around Brown.

Harris underperformed Biden's performance in 2020 in every geographic region. She also followed Biden across the state's political spectrum, from areas that voted most heavily for Trump in 2020 to those that voted most heavily for Biden.

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Learn more about how and why the AP chooses winners in U.S. elections below declare election 2024, A series from The Associated Press designed to help understand American democracy. The AP receives support from several private foundations to improve its explanatory coverage of elections and democracy. Learn more about AP's Democracy Initiative Here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.