Ukraine congratulates Trump, but a Republican victory will scare Kiev

Ukraine congratulated Donald Trump, who appeared to be close to winning the US election on Wednesday morning, and expressed courage in the face of a possible Republican victory, seen as a bad outcome for Kiev in terms of military aid and potentially its territorial integrity.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was among the first world leaders to congratulate Trump, who declared victory in the presidential election early Wednesday morning as he led Kamala Harris in scheduled Electoral College votes. NBC News has not yet predicted the outcome of the presidential campaign.

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“I appreciate President Trump's commitment to the 'peace through strength' approach to global affairs. This is precisely the principle that can practically bring a just peace in Ukraine closer. I hope that together we will make it a reality,” commented Zelensky.

Trump is currently just a few votes short of securing the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the White House, and Republicans could claim a clear victory and take control of both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. House of Representatives win the Senate. That would make it easy for a Republican administration to block future military funding for Ukraine.

Trump also boasted that if elected he could “end the war in 24 hours,” signaling that he would cut funding to Ukraine to force a negotiated settlement with Russia. Analysts say Ukraine could then find itself in a “bad peace” with its powerful neighbor and may be forced to give up almost 20% of its territory in the south and east currently occupied by Russian troops.

Ukraine relies heavily on military, financial and humanitarian assistance from its international partners to enable it to continue to function as a state and fight against Russia after nearly three years of war. The US elections and the future of this funding and support were seen as a pivotal moment for Kiev.

On Wednesday, Zelensky said Ukraine looked forward to “an era of a strong United States of America under the decisive leadership of President Trump” and that Kiev “continues strong bipartisan support for Ukraine in the United States.”

Before the vote, a senior Ukrainian official told CNBC that a possible Republican cutoff of U.S. funding to Ukraine would be “extremely unfavorable for Ukraine” and that while Kiev has its “opinions on the various candidates,” it hopes that it could rely on U.S. support until it achieved victory and a “just peace.”

Ahead of the Nov. 5 vote, there was widespread agreement that a Trump administration and hardline Republicans would be far more hostile to providing more funding to Ukraine. Trump's Vice President JD Vance has explicitly opposed further aid to Kiev, arguing that the US should encourage the country to reach a peace deal with Russia and that Ukraine should be willing to cede land to Moscow.

In a heated presidential debate with his Democratic rival Kamala Harris in September, Trump was asked several times whether he wanted Ukraine to win the war or whether it was in the best interest of the United States for Kiev to win.

He responded that he wanted an end to the war to save lives and that he would try to negotiate a deal with Russia. He gave no details on how a deal would be reached or whether Ukraine would involve ceding occupied territories to Russia – a concession that Kiev had previously rejected.

Trump also claimed that the war would not have started if he had been in power in 2022 and that Russian President Vladimir Putin “would be sitting in Moscow and he wouldn't have lost 300,000 men and women in the war.”

Exact figures for war casualties are not known. Neither Russia nor Ukraine releases such sensitive information, but U.S. intelligence estimated last year that around 315,000 Russian soldiers – the vast majority of them men – had been killed or wounded in the war as of that date.