Comparing the 2024 election polls with the 2020 and 2016 elections

President Donald Trump is expected to win several key battleground states and secure the presidency for a second time. There are some important insights into how the country's politics have changed in the three consecutive elections with Trump on the ballot.

CNN poll results from 2016, 2020 and 2024 show how a weak economy weighed on Vice President Kamala Harris, how she failed to boost support among women even as support for abortion rights increased, and how Latinos in particular Men were attracted to Trump.

CNN's election polls for the 2024 general election include interviews with thousands of voters, both those who voted on Election Day and those who voted early or by mail. This scope makes them a powerful tool for understanding the demographic profile and political views of voters in this year's election. And their results are ultimately compared to the ultimate measure: the election results themselves. Still, exit polls are still polls with margins of error — meaning they are most useful when treated as estimates rather than precise measurements . This is especially true before election poll numbers are adjusted to reflect the final election results.

The 2024 exit poll data continues to be updated and automatically displayed in the charts below.

Harris' lead among women this year did not exceed that of President Joe Biden or former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, a worrying sign for the vice president as she sought to mobilize female voters on the issue of abortion. Trump maintained a lead among men.

Since 2016, Latino voters, and men in particular, have been moving toward Trump. This year, Latin men broke in his direction for the first time. Biden won their support by 23 points in 2020 and Trump won it in 2024. Latina women continued to prefer Harris, although by smaller margins than they supported either Clinton or Biden.

Harris maintained a strong lead among black men and women. Trump's lead among white men shrank.

White voters without college degrees have long been Trump's support base, and that remains the case today. A shift has occurred among college-educated white voters. They narrowly supported Trump in 2016, but Harris won them by about 10 points in 2024, a split carried by both men and women. Harris won college-educated white women by about 20 points — an improvement over Biden and Clinton. Meanwhile, Harris lost some support among voters of color at all educational levels.

Democrats lost some support among youngest voters, a group that overwhelmingly votes for them. But Harris also made gains among the oldest voters, a group that traditionally leans toward Republicans. It's an interesting change.

While Trump lost some support in rural areas in 2020, he regained full strength there in 2024. The cities remained solidly democratic. The suburbs remained the evenly divided battleground where elections are decided.

Voters were roughly evenly divided in 2020 on whether the economy was in good shape or not, an incredible thing given the raging pandemic that disrupted Americans' lives this year. In 2024, about two-thirds of voters said the economy was in bad shape. This change in mood benefited Trump.

It makes sense that partisans would say their position has improved or not depending on whether the person they support is in the White House. There is a big change this year. In 2020, almost a fifth of voters said they were worse off than four years earlier. This year, nearly half of voters say they are worse off than they were four years ago. Trump won it overwhelmingly.

One story these charts don't fully tell is how the abortion discussion has changed. In 2016, Roe v. Wade gave every American woman a constitutional right to an abortion. In 2024, that federal right is gone, taken away by a conservative majority that helped put Trump on the Supreme Court. In 2020, about half of Americans said abortion should be legal in all or most cases. In 2024, about two-thirds of Americans believe abortion should be legal in all or most cases. But they didn't necessarily tie that support to their election as president. Nearly half of those who say abortion should be legal supported Trump in most cases.

Liberals and conservatives have penetrated even further into their partisan corners during the Trump years. Moderates still favored the Democratic candidate in 2024, although by a narrower margin than in 2020.

People who say they voted for their chosen candidate rather than against their opponent have voted for Trump, a sign of his popularity among his supporters. Those more motivated by opposition were largely in Harris' camp. Overall, about three-quarters of voters said they would vote primarily to support their candidate rather than to oppose their rival.

Trump's campaign strategy was based on motivating low-propensity voters who do not typically participate in the political process. That paid off because there was a dramatic shift between 2020, when Biden won primary voters, and 2024, when Trump won them. However, there is an important connection in that a smaller proportion of voters reported casting their first ballot in 2024 than in 2020.