Trump's influence on world politics, explained

The results are not yet in, but if Donald Trump wins the 2024 presidential election and regains the presidency, he could radically reshape international politics.

Trump made it very clear during the election campaign that he believes major changes in US foreign policy are necessary. “We have been treated so badly, especially by allies… our allies actually treat us worse than our so-called enemies,” Trump told the audience at a campaign rally in Wisconsin in September. “In the military we protect them, and then they screw us over in trade. We won’t allow it anymore.”

These are not empty promises. Presidents have wide latitude in foreign policy and can unilaterally conclude or repeal many international agreements.

“As far as the withdrawal criteria go, it really varies from agreement to agreement, but there are very few that require congressional approval for withdrawal,” said Jennifer Kavanagh, senior fellow and director of military analysis at Defense Priorities, to Vox.

In his first term, Trump pursued what he called an “America First” foreign policy that led to him withdrawing from key international agreements, starting a trade war with China, verbally alienating allies and complex negotiations with several U.S -Opponents tried.

This campaign season, he has vowed to continue attempts to dramatically alter or otherwise obstruct international agreements, including the NATO security alliance, in ways that could fundamentally weaken the U.S. place in the global order.

Of Trump's stated foreign policy positions, his proposed protectionist trade policies would likely be the most immediately damaging to Americans; His proposed tariff increases would trigger a global trade war and drive up prices for American consumers. In the longer term, his ideas about the U.S. role in international affairs could undermine U.S. diplomacy and undermine institutions such as NATO and the United Nations. This could have a lasting impact on the geopolitical landscape, similar to his foreign policy decisions in his first term.

Trump's isolationist first administration, briefly explained

During his first term in office from 2017 to 2021, Trump withdrew from several international agreements, including the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), often referred to as the Iran deal. That deal, negotiated in 2015 under President Barack Obama, essentially eased U.S. sanctions on Iran in return for curbs on its nuclear program and allowed for greater international control over it.

“The Iran deal was one of the worst and most unilateral transactions the United States has ever entered into,” Trump said when the agreement was scrapped in 2018. Since then, Iran has been building up and increasing its stockpile of enriched uranium. The program is reportedly moving significantly closer to developing nuclear capabilities, despite the Trump administration's promise that Iran would never have one.

Trump also withdrew the United States from the Paris Climate Agreement, which requires all signatory countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The Trump administration's other diplomatic losses include the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF), a Cold War-era pact between the U.S. and Russia that limited the development of short- and intermediate-range nuclear weapons; the Open Skies Treaty, which allows signatories to conduct military reconnaissance flights; and two international migration agreements.

Even in his first term in office, Trump repeatedly criticized NATO. He argued that the other countries in the military alliance were not spending enough on defense (and they were starting to spend more), questioned whether the organization was still necessary, and withdrew nearly 10,000 soldiers stationed in Germany in 2020, a decision by Vice President Kamala Philip Gordon, Harris's foreign policy adviser, said it appeared “intended to send a message about what the limit is to what Americans are willing to do, for the defense of foreign borders and, more broadly, for the maintenance of world order.” to spend.”

What Trump might do in a second term

For a second term, Trump has promised to withdraw again from international agreements and organizations.

He explicitly promised to withdraw the USA from the Paris climate agreement after the USA had rejoined the agreement under President Joe Biden. And Trump could limit US cooperation with UN organizations that his administration is critical of, such as the World Health Organization. He has also introduced a series of new tariffs – at times calling for new taxes of up to 20 percent on U.S. trading partners and recently threatening to impose tariffs of up to 100 percent against Mexico, the U.S.'s largest trading partner for goods, in 2024.

One partnership that Trump would have difficulty changing is the US agreement with NATO. The NATO charter does not provide for a withdrawal mechanism. Kavanagh explained, “Recently, Congress passed legislation specifically targeting NATO that requires congressional approval to withdraw from NATO,” further protecting U.S. membership in the alliance.

Even with this protection, there are ways a second Trump administration could undermine NATO or other U.S. military pacts, such as the one between the U.S., South Korea and Japan, which was intended to deter China and North Korea.

“​​Trump can decide to change the US posture in every country, be it in Asia or in Europe, and simply withdraw troops, close bases, stop investing in some kind of common infrastructure and in all the committees and logistical parts that “Maintaining an alliance running keeps us tied to allies and partners,” Kavanagh said. “Any president could do that.”

But neglecting NATO and alienating these allies is not the only way a Trump administration could harm U.S. foreign policy and diplomacy, according to James Lindsay, senior fellow for U.S. foreign policy at the Council on Foreign Relations.

“A lot will depend on how he staffs his administration,” Lindsay told Vox. “We don't have a good sense of who would be secretary of state, secretary of defense, or (or) national security adviser.” The people in those positions could have serious implications for all kinds of foreign policy decisions, from how (and whether) ceasefire negotiations take place to the countries receiving arms supplies.

In the absence of a robust, experienced diplomatic apparatus, Trump could attempt to negotiate foreign policy largely on his own, as he has done in the past. These attempts have had poor results, such as when his attempt to negotiate with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un ended in 2019, with no guarantees from the North Korean side to stop the development of nuclear weapons and no fundamental change in relations. His talks with the Taliban led to the withdrawal of US and NATO troops and the collapse of the civilian government in Afghanistan.

Trump has made big promises about the kind of negotiations he would lead as president – such as ending the war between Russia and Ukraine in 24 hours – but as in his first term, the reality is likely to be much more difficult and messy is suggested.