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Trump leads the Electoral College in the election as Republicans take back the Senate

Trump leads the Electoral College in the election as Republicans take back the Senate

8 minutes, 53 seconds Read

This is a continuing guide to articles and audio published by The Conversation immediately before and after the election, with some commentary on the process. This page is updated from the top, so older references are moved down the page.


Good morning world. The United States has made its choice. And as of 7 a.m., Donald Trump and the Republican Party will be the happier candidates, having won the most electoral votes so far and the first swing states of North Carolina and Georgia, regaining control of the Senate.

It's been a tumultuous four months since outgoing President Joe Biden announced he was ending his bid for a second term, leaving the battle lines undecided between the two candidates, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Soon we will know who will lead the United States in the next four years.

From here, we'll keep you updated on how the situation develops with the help of some of the sharpest analysts in US politics.

Dafydd Townley, lecturer in international security at the University of Portsmouth, has written an overview of the election process. Turnout appeared to be high and there were no major incidents of violence, although there appeared to be numerous fake bombs, possibly of Russian origin.

Turnout was impressive and early speculation suggests Trump has surpassed his rural support from 2020, while Democrat Kamala Harris only reached the suburban numbers Biden reached four years ago. NBC exit polls also showed Trump had more support from voters under 30 than any other Republican candidate since 2008.



Read more: Trump takes first swing states North Carolina and Georgia after peaceful vote


The USA has moved to the right

Natasha Lindstaedt says academics and pundits got the 2024 polls completely wrong.

The polls were right – he had a lot more power (than we all thought). We thought the polls were seriously underestimating Kamala Harris and that she was doing far better than they predicted when they said it was on a knife edge. But it turns out they underestimated Trump.

The USA has moved to the right. The abortion law was not repealed in Florida, Ted Cruz won by ten points in Texas, a state we thought could be competitive. In this Iowa poll, we thought Harris might be more competitive with white voters. It was a great night for Trump and an absolute disaster for the Democrats.

She said many people watching the campaign thought women would take part and that would make a difference. But actually that wasn't the case.

Trump won a lot more than he did in 2020 – probably out of nostalgia for what his administration looked like when he looked at it through rose-colored glasses, forgetting the chaos and all the upheaval he himself caused. Now he will inherit a great economy – and he will take the credit for it.

Trump wins Pennsylvania and declares victory

Donald Trump has won the 2024 presidential election. It followed shortly after the networks announced that he had won the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. Richard Hargy says he says the state played an important role throughout the campaign.

It was last July in Butler, Pennsylvania, where Trump survived an assassination attempt during a campaign rally after a gunman opened fire from a nearby rooftop.

Trump's victory in Pennsylvania was largely helped by the advocacy of the world's richest man, Elon Musk, in the presidential election. He funded a multibillion-dollar door-knocking campaign across the country and hosted events in support of Donald Trump.

On Monday, a judge in Pennsylvania ruled that a $1 million-a-day voter sweepstakes organized by Musk was legal and could continue through Tuesday's election.

When will we find out the result?

To get a sense of the scope of the vote-counting task, take a look at the map of the U.S. below, color-coded by polling deadline. Nobody can currently guess how long the count might take. Each state has its own rules.

Before the end of the election, Richard Hargy, an expert on US politics from Queen's University Belfast, wrote a guide to when the votes will be counted and when we might start seeing results.



Read more: US election: When do the polls close and when will the results be announced? An expert explains


Delays are built into the process, such as in Pennsylvania, where it is not possible to count votes cast or ballots cast before Election Day until polls close at 8 p.m. (1 a.m. GMT).

So we just have to be patient. In the meantime, you can also read Hargy's explanation of the “electoral college” system, which can mean the candidate with the most votes may not win the presidency.



Read more: US election: How does the Electoral College voting system work?


Early voting and what that could mean

Scott Lucas, professor of international politics at University College Dublin, believes that in a cliffhanger election, a clue to the outcome could lie in the level of turnout. More than 80 million Americans voted early — about half of the total turnout in 2020 and about a third of eligible voters.

The 80 million figure takes on additional significance when you realize that it is not that far off from the 104 million who voted early in the “pandemic” election four years ago. And this 2020 election was the highest voter turnout since 1900, with 158.4 million votes and a turnout of nearly 67%.

Who benefits from this? Probably Kamala Harris and Tim Walz. Trumpists will stand up for their man in any situation. The big question mark was whether potential Harris voters would remain inactive, either because of a lack of enthusiasm or dissatisfaction with issues like Israel's all-out war on Gaza.

Any prediction in this election is a risk. But it might be worth sending a message: If voter turnout meets or exceeds the 2020 record, Kamala Harris could be on her way to the White House.

Tense moment for the USA

During the election campaign, there were two assassination attempts on former President Trump as well as arson attacks on ballot boxes and damaged ballot papers. In Arizona, the Democratic Party was forced to close one of its offices after it was shot three times.

Dafydd Townley, an international security scholar at the University of Portsmouth, believes there could be a reluctance to accept the result and that this could lead to further unrest. He has written about how much violence there has been during this campaign.



Read more: US election: Officials are equipped with panic buttons as attacks on ballot boxes continue


Dafyyd Townley comments on post-election violence.

What influence race had on the campaign

Rhianna Garrett, a doctoral candidate and global coordinator of the Board of Critical Mixed Race Studies at Loughborough University, says Trump's campaign is “littered with attempts to exploit the multiracial legacy of his Democratic opponent Kamala Harris.”

Much of this was an attempt to galvanize his own base, sometimes with fairly blatant appeals to latent feelings of racism, but also as a tool to position Harris as fraudulent and untrustworthy by seemingly blurring and displacing her own background.

In August, not long after Harris took over the Democratic ticket from Biden, Trump appeared at the National Association of Black Journalists conference when he falsely claimed that Harris was changing her identity, stating, “I didn't know until after a number that she's black.” from years ago when she happened to be black, and now she wants to be known as black, so I don't know. Is she Indian or is she black?”

For its part, Harris' campaign has also leveraged her multiracial heritage to advance its policy goals. The White House website describes her as “the first woman, the first Black American and the first South Asian American” to hold a vice presidential position, in what was effectively an attempt to position her as a winner. Harris herself also highlighted the issue of race on her campaign website. In an attempt to attack Trump's campaign, it strategically aims to specifically promote black and Latino men and women's rights. These are important groups of voters that she wants to mobilize through identity politics.

Trump and winning male voters

Donald Trump has broadened his appeal to male voters this election, with polls suggesting he received more support from black and Latino men, as well as more young men more broadly.

One reason for this could be that young men in 2024 are more conservative than any other group in the United States. Another reason why gender has become a contentious issue is the overturn of Roe v. Wade, which gave American women the right to abortion.

Read more about the gender gap in this article by Natasha Lindstaedt, Professor of Government at Essex University.



Read more: US election: Why more men and fewer white women say they will vote for Trump


A free speech campaign?

Julie Posetti, professor of journalism at City St George's, University of London and global research director at the International Center for Journalists, recently conducted a survey of more than 1,000 Americans about their attitudes toward the press.

By breaking down the results, they were able to get an idea of ​​how people in the US feel about specifically criticizing and even insulting journalists. You can read everything about the study here.



Read more: New poll shows alarming tolerance for attacks on the press in the US – particularly among white, Republican men


When Trump speaks, his supporters hear him loud and clear

Channel 4 shows images of the Trump party at the Palm Beach Convention Center, where MAGA faithful celebrate the news that Trump has apparently retaken Georgia with his second swing state victory. It is expected that their idol will join them soon.

While we wait for him to speak, here is a fascinating article on Trump's rhetorical style by Loren D. Marsh of Humboldt University in Berlin. His speeches were ridiculed by his opponents during the election campaign. He is said to be unfocused, rambling and sometimes nonsensical. He calls it the “weave” and says it’s awesome. Marsh says whatever you think, it seems to be working for his supporters.

Far from being a liability or an indication of his inability to stay on message, Trump's “tissue” could well be his intuitive rhetorical strategy, a way to take control of the media narrative.



Read more: Trump's speeches are chaotic, rambling and extremely effective. Aristotle can explain why


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