Kamala Harris wins Minnesota, Fox News Projects

According to Fox News, Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to win Minnesota, giving the Democratic candidate 10 electoral votes.

Minnesota, which has voted for the Democratic candidate in every presidential election since 1976, is part of the 18-state Blue Wall. These states have voted for the Democratic presidential candidate in most elections since 1992. Kamala Harris' running mate, Gov. Tim Walz, is also from the North Star State. Before November 5th, many polls showed Harris as the likely winner of Minnesota, and FiveThirtyEight showed her with a five-point lead on October 28th.

Which presidential candidate did Minnesota voters choose in 2016 and 2020?

Despite Minnesota's long history of supporting Democratic presidential candidates – the state has not elected a Republican to the White House since Richard Nixon's victory in 1972 – recent elections suggest that the traditional “Blue Wall” may be showing cracks.

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton won Minnesota in 2016 by 1.5 percent over Donald Trump.

In 2016, Minnesota had the highest voter turnout in the country, with about 75 percent of the state's eligible voters casting a ballot.

President Joe Biden carried Minnesota by 7.1 percent, as predicted by almost every news organization. While Trump's strength was concentrated in rural counties, the areas around Minneapolis, St. Paul, Rochester and the Northeast counties were responsible for Biden's victory.

Biden also flipped four districts that Trump carried in 2016: Clay, Nicollet, Blue Earth and Winona.

In 2020 the Minnesota Star Tribune The editorial board endorsed Biden, saying, “Editorial Endorsement: Biden Can Reunite, Restart America. He will bring science back to the White House and provide smart, stable leadership.”

However, in September 2024, the newspaper's editorial team stated: “The newly renamed newspaper Minnesota Star Tribune announced in August that it would not offer political support in the upcoming general election. It was not a spontaneous decision to pause our long-standing practice.

“Rather, it is a strategy aimed at exploring new and creative ways to provide useful analysis to our readers.”

“We will review the positions and provide a political analysis of the candidates seeking the two highest offices in the country. We will acknowledge, but refrain from making a biased judgment about what could be considered disqualifying campaign behavior. We rely on the abilities of informed citizens to decide who to vote for based on what they see, hear and research.”

What were the polling averages in Minnesota?

RealClearPolitics' Electoral College ratings map listed Minnesota as a failure.

However, FiveThirtyEight's Oct. 30 overall poll showed the Gopher State with a 5.9-point lead for Harris as of Oct. 30, with her receiving 50.1 percent of the vote to Trump's 44.2 percent.

A MinnPost-Embold Research poll released Oct. 28 showed Harris leading Trump 48 to 45 percent, a slight shift from September when Harris led Trump 49 to 44 percent, narrowing to 49 to 45 percent when you included those who leaned towards a candidate.

The October poll polled 1,734 likely Minnesota voters between Oct. 16 and Oct. 22, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.4 percentage points. The September poll, conducted between Sept. 4 and Sept. 8, polled 1,616 likely voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.

Only 2 percent of those surveyed were undecided, compared to 3 percent in September. Meanwhile, 5 percent of respondents said they plan to vote for someone other than Harris or Trump. The October poll also showed the former president maintaining a lead among independents at 36 percent to Harris' 27 percent, with 24 percent preferring other candidates.

Protecting democracy is one of the biggest issues in Minnesota

Minnesota Public Radio News and the APM Research Lab found that about two-thirds of Minnesota voters said they felt democracy was under threat.

A survey of 800 likely voters conducted September 16-18 found that democracy is one of great concern for all major voter groups, including men and women, all ages, political persuasions, both white and BIPOC Minnesotans, and without a university degree and those in the four major regions.

The perception that democracy is currently under threat is more common among Democrats (81 percent) than among independents (64 percent) or Republicans (58 percent). It was also more pronounced among supporters of the Harris-Walz campaign than among those for Trump-Vance (83 percent to 56 percent respectively).

While the Secretary of State has received over 860,000 mail-in ballots as of Oct. 24, there is no political party registration in Minnesota, so it can be harder to gauge voter turnout in advance.

In addition to regular early voting sites, officials in at least a dozen communities are hosting “pop-up” sites this year, they said Star Tribune.

Walz, his wife Gwen and their son Gus all went to a polling place in St. Paul in October to vote early.

It was Gus Walz's first choice. Tim Walz stood with his son as they fed their ballots into the counting machine. A poll worker shouted “first time voter” and the room cheered, leading to a high-five between the governor and his son.

Walz lives in Minnesota and is governor there. Since being announced as Harris' running mate, he has returned to the state several times, including for the Minnesota State Fair and to cast his early vote.

Trump headlined the state Republican Party's annual Lincoln-Reagan dinner in May. In July, he visited St. Cloud again for a rally with his newly appointed vice president, Senator JD Vance. Vance attended a private, high-dollar fundraiser in Minneapolis in early October.

This is in stark contrast to Trump's handling of the state in the 2020 election, when he rallied in Minnesota three times in the three months leading up to Election Day.