Who will win the election in Michigan? Donald Trump vs Kamala Harris updates

Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are battling to win Michigan and secure the state's 15 electoral votes.

Michigan played a crucial role in a presidential election for the fourth consecutive year, with Trump and Harris fighting intensely for the state's votes during the campaign. Both campaigns sought to appeal to people in voting-eligible Detroit and its suburbs, as well as in Kent County to the west, home to Grand Rapids and a key swing area of ​​the state.

According to CNN forecasts, Trump was ahead with 62 percent of the votes counted, ahead of Harris with 52.1 percent of the vote.

Who did Michigan voters elect in 2016 and 2020?

Michigan was one of three presidential battlegrounds, along with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, that narrowly went for Donald Trump in 2016, after nearly 30 years of supporting Democrats in the presidential election. Four years later, Democrat Joe Biden won all three states back for the Democrats, with a lead in Michigan of about 154,000 votes out of more than 5.5 million votes cast.

As of October 1, 2024, Michigan had approximately 8,148,345 registered voters, with Democrats making up 2,522,847 (31%), Republicans making up 3,261,441 (40%), and third party/other affiliations totaling 198,538 (2.44%). This is an increase from 2020, when Michigan had approximately 8,105,524 registered voters, of which 7,151,051 were classified as active voters.

What were the polling averages in Michigan?

According to Nate Silver's popular model as of late October 2024, Kamala Harris was ahead in Michigan with 48.4 percent of the projected vote, compared to Donald Trump's 47.2 percent, giving her a slight lead of 0.4 points. That margin had narrowed from earlier in the month, with Trump improving his numbers by 0.9 points since September.

FiveThirtyEight's model also showed Harris had a one-point lead over Trump, with Harris holding 48 percent of the vote and Trump holding 47 percent.

The biggest problems in Michigan

In Michigan, a state with roots in manufacturing, voters were mostly concerned with the economy, immigration and the conflict in Gaza. Despite favorable economic indicators such as low unemployment and falling inflation, the rising cost of living remained a pressing issue, with economic stability and job security the top priority in most surveys.

Another focus for Michigan voters was immigration, reflecting the national mood and centered around debates over border security and pathways to citizenship. The ongoing conflict in Gaza resonated particularly with Michigan's Arab-American community – the largest in the United States – and foreign policy considerations played a large role.

A recent survey by The Washington Post noted that the Gaza conflict is a more significant issue in Michigan than in other states, with Trump having a slight edge over Harris in public perception of the situation's handling.

As of November 1, 2024, there were a significant number of early votes cast in Michigan in advance of the November 5 election. Statewide, more than 2.5 million people participated in early voting, accounting for about 35.5% of the state's 7.27 million registered voters.

This total includes both absentee votes and in-person early voting. Specifically, 1,843,060 mail-in ballots were returned, representing approximately 78.5% of the 2,348,351 ballots mailed. Additionally, 736,894 voters cast their votes in person during early voting.

Both campaigns teamed up intensively in Michigan

Both candidates had Michigan firmly in their sights, with Trump and Harris each making 14 stops in the state this year. Trump visited cities like Detroit, Warren and Novi with his “America First” message to strengthen his base.

Harris has focused on building Democratic support in areas like Grand Rapids and Lansing, with former first lady Michelle Obama accompanying her to her first campaign appearance of the cycle in Kalamazoo in October.