The race for California Senate is not over

Two and a half weeks before Election Day, Burbank Rep. Adam Schiff was in South Florida, shaking hands with local Democrats and endorsing Senate candidate Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.

That same day, Republican Steve Garvey was at Temple University in Pennsylvania, accepting an award at a women's sports media symposium.

One could be forgiven for forgetting that both men were still running for the U.S. Senate in California.

After elbowing their way out of the state's first competitive Senate primary in a generation, Schiff and Garvey found themselves facing off in a race that wasn't one at all.

Garvey has held few public events, Schiff has traveled regularly to other states to support Democrats in more competitive elections, and neither campaign has done any real advertising.

This is exactly what Schiff had hoped for. He and his allies spent tens of millions of dollars during the primary to highlight Garvey's conservative credentials, propelling the former Major League Baseball star into the general election and averting a more expensive and competitive runoff with Democratic Rep. Katie Porter of Irvine.

“It was just over at that point,” said Sarah A. Hill, a political science professor at Cal State Fullerton. “The primary was the election.”

Schiff's support among the majority of California voters has changed little since then. Depending on who you ask, that shows how popular Schiff is — or how stacked the cards are against Republicans like Garvey seeking higher office in a state where Democrats have a nearly 2-to-1 voter advantage.

Given that Garvey has considered running for Senate since retiring from professional baseball in 1988, he would have expected he would have been “better prepared” and had a “better understanding of the issues.” said Schiff.

“His strength is as a ballplayer,” Schiff said. “As a politician, he doesn’t inspire confidence.”

Garvey is out of step with what California voters want, Schiff said, which is to be someone who takes action on climate change and reproductive rights, rather than someone who voted for Donald Trump three times.

Garvey and his campaign have criticized Schiff for not saying how he will vote on Proposition 36, the criminal justice overhaul that would impose tougher penalties for retail theft and fentanyl-related crimes. The Republican supports the measure.

Garvey also called Schiff a “liar” for his work on the congressional committee investigating the Trump campaign's ties to Russia during the 2016 campaign, telling him in a debate: “You lied to 300 million people.” You can't take that back .”

Dan Schnur, a political science professor at Pepperdine, UC Berkeley and USC who has previously run statewide campaigns, said Garvey would have been a competitive candidate in a state where Republicans had a fighting chance.

“In a deep blue state like California, a Republican simply isn’t going to win a statewide race unless something extraordinary happens,” Schnur said. And, he said, nothing out of the ordinary.

Schiff supports the Democrats

Since late September, Schiff has traveled to Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, New Mexico, Nevada, Arizona, Minnesota and Wisconsin to campaign for Vice President Kamala Harris and the Democrats who could be his colleagues in the Senate.

That included a recent Saturday in Las Vegas, where Schiff campaigned for Harris and Nevada Sen. Jacky Rosen, who is in a re-election fight against Republican Sam Brown.

The day began at 9 a.m. in front of the Nevada AFL-CIO headquarters. As more than a hundred volunteers picked up breakfast burritos, advertising orders and flyers, Schiff joked to the crowd, “It's great to be in the House of Labor – or more specifically, the Parking Lot of Labor.”

Schiff was a familiar face to many of the union volunteers who traveled from California to knock on doors.

Schiff then headed to a campaign event north of Las Vegas, where he met a Mexican man Charro Rider and appeared with a grandson of César Chávez; a delegate meeting of the powerful Western States Carpenters where he dropped three F-bombs during his speech; a late vegan lunch with actor Bryan Cranston, who volunteered for Rosen; a stop at a phone bank for Rep. Susie Lee of Southern Nevada; and a flight home that landed in Burbank at 8:40 p.m

Schiff also campaigned with other California Democrats this summer and fall, appearing with and fundraising for Democrats trying to grab the state's most competitive House seats. In the final week of the campaign, he swept the state, battling with congressional candidates in Irvine, Fullerton, San Diego, Madera and Bakersfield.

“I don’t take it for granted in any way,” Schiff said of his lead. “I campaigned aggressively across the state, much more aggressively than my opponent.”

Schiff's campaign said he has raised nearly $10 million for Democrats. A brunch fundraiser in Los Angeles this summer raised $700,000, split between his campaign and eight Democrats running for Senate in swing states.

“Control of the House and Senate is huge when it comes to what policies can be passed in the next administration,” said Kim Nalder, a political science professor at Cal State University Sacramento. “He certainly understands what’s at stake. And it doesn’t hurt him to act as an ally for people in need.”

Garvey is less visible

Garvey, whose campaign did not respond to an interview request, has held far fewer public campaign events. He toured the U.S.-Mexico border last December, traveled to Israel this summer and toured a dam and wildfire zone in Shasta County this fall.

Garvey also spoke at several branches of the nondenominational evangelical church Calvary Chapel, a common resource for Republicans seeking higher office in California. At an event last month, Garvey told the audience that California was “arguably the hardest Senate seat in America to win” for a Republican.

“It’s been quite a journey,” Garvey said. “For 50 years I've lived in this state, playing in front of millions of people, entertaining… You've seen me succeed, you've seen me fail, but you've seen me get up and keep swinging and kept trying. This is what we do because we have faith.”

In late October, he also appeared alongside Reps. Young Kim and Michelle Steel and House candidates Scott Baugh and Matt Gunderson at a brewery in Anaheim at a rally hosted by the Orange County GOP.

Despite what Garvey has said publicly, “he knew going in that this would be the outcome,” said Jon Fleischman, a Republican campaign strategist and former head of the California GOP.

But, Fleischman said, Republicans owe Garvey a “debt of gratitude” because a GOP presence at the top of the ticket will bolster Republican candidates in competitive campaigns.

Garvey said he voted for Trump three times but did not seek the former president's support. Trump said in September that was “a big mistake,” adding, “If he doesn't have MAGA, he doesn't have a chance.”

Polls have shown Garvey was right to focus on the center. A recent poll conducted by UC Berkeley and co-sponsored by the LA Times found that 92% of respondents who described their political views as “MAGA” would support Garvey.

As Schiff shifted his focus to other Democratic campaigns, Garvey raised more money than Schiff in the second and third quarters of the year. Drawing on nostalgia from his time with the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres, Garvey sells signed baseballs for $100 on his campaign website and has appeared at fundraisers under a banner showing him hitting a baseball.

In a typed fundraising letter sent to older voters this fall, Garvey recalled that during his baseball glory days in the 1970s, “Democratic politics had brought America to its knees.” And now, as Yogi Berra used to say : 'It's déjà vu all over again.'”

“I am no Schwarzenegger and in no way would I dare compare myself to President Reagan,” Garvey wrote. “But California voters know me. And Adam Schiff and the Democrats are shaking in their boots when they see how quickly I’m rising in the polls.”

At this point in the election, Flesichman said, “The measure is not how much money someone raises, but how much everyone has spent.”

Schiff's spending has dwarfed Garvey's, including more than 40% of the $75 million spent in the run-up to March 5.

Garvey announced a $5 million advertising buy targeting Latino voters in September, including radio ads for 40 Spanish-language stations. Univision also aired Spanish-language commercials on its live stream during the team's playoff run. But many voters saw no advertising at all.

The California ballot includes two Senate questions. Voters are being asked to choose Schiff or Garvey to serve out the remainder of the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein's final term, which ends in early January. The other asks voters to select one of the men to serve another six-year term in the Senate.

The race was such a sleeper, Nalder said, that many California voters “will be surprised if they even see the race on their ballot — and even more so if they see it twice.”