Kamala Harris Gets a Worrying Sign in Bellwether Pennsylvania County: Poll

Vice President Kamala Harris received a worrying sign in a key county in the battleground state of Pennsylvania, according to a poll released Friday.

Election Day is just three days away and tens of millions of voters have already cast their ballots early in a tight race between Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, and former President Donald Trump, the Republican presidential nominee.

Pennsylvania is key to victory as it has 19 electoral votes, the most of any of the seven swing states. It is also one of the swing states where voter support between the two candidates is lowest.

A new one USA today/A Suffolk University poll showed Harris and Trump tied with 49 percent of the vote each. The poll was conducted Oct. 27-30, surveyed 500 likely voters in Pennsylvania and has a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.

However, Harris has a troubling sign when he looks at the driving force in Northampton County. A lead region is a place where election results typically reflect the vote of the entire electorate.

In Friday's poll, Trump was slightly ahead of Harris in Northampton County (50 percent to 48 percent). However, the two candidates are tied at 48 percent each in Erie County, another key candidate in Pennsylvania. The polls surveyed 300 likely voters in each county. The results of the polls are within their margin of error of 5.65 percentage points.

In September, Harris led Trump in Erie and Northampton counties – both where results have correctly predicted the overall winner of presidential elections since 2008.

Polls published at the time by USA Today and Suffolk University showed Trump trailing Harris by five percentage points in Northampton County and four percentage points behind Harris in Erie County.

Newsweek reached out to the Harris and Trump campaigns via email late Saturday morning seeking comment.

How are the candidates in Pennsylvania doing overall?

According to two different poll aggregators, Trump and Harris are doing about the same in Pennsylvania.

According to 538 figures as of Saturday afternoon, the former president has 47.8 percent of voter support and Harris has 47.7 percent. In poll analyst Nate Silver's presidential model, last updated late Saturday morning, Trump has a slightly larger lead (48.3 percent to 48 percent).

National poll averages

Meanwhile, at 538, Harris is just over 1 point ahead of Trump (48 to 46.8 percent) on Saturday, while Silver has the vice president slightly ahead of Trump nationally (48.5 to 47.4 percent) on Saturday.

National polls only predict the popular vote due to America's electoral college system, which awards the presidency to a candidate with 270 or more electoral votes, which are distributed to states based on the number of senators and representatives, not the total number of votes cast across the country. On the other hand, national surveys can help anticipate trends in nationwide surveys.

Previous election predictions in Pennsylvania?

During Trump's first presidential bid in 2016, 538 predicted on Election Day that his Democratic opponent, former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, had a 77 percent chance of winning Pennsylvania, as opposed to Trump's 23 percent chance.

In the end, however, Trump won Pennsylvania by a narrow margin of 48.2 percent to 47.5 percent.

On Election Day in 2020, current President Joe Biden, a Democrat, was over 4 points ahead of Trump (50.2 to 45.6 percent) with 538 votes, according to polling averages.

In the end, Biden beat Trump in Pennsylvania by a razor-thin margin of 50 percent to 48.8 percent.

Biden won Northampton County and Erie County by a narrow margin of 1 percent in 2020, while Trump defeated Clinton by 4 points in Northampton and 2 points in Erie in 2016.