Top election guru Nate Silver reveals the definitive prediction model for the 2024 election – and it couldn't be closer

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Pollster Nate Silver has unveiled his final prediction model for the 2024 presidential election – concluding that the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is “literally closer than a coin toss.”

In Silver's model, Harris won the Electoral College in 50.015 percent of the 80,000 simulations, giving her a razor-thin lead.

“The race is literally closer than a coin toss: empirically, heads win 50.5 percent of the time, more than Harris' 50.015 percent,” Silver wrote on his Substack page Tuesday morning.

“When I say that the odds in this year's presidential race are as close to 50/50 as possible, I'm not exaggerating,” he said.

Silver added that Harris failed to emerge victorious in 39,988 simulations (49.985 percent) and that 39,718 of those were clear wins for Trump.

The remaining 270 simulations resulted in a tie in the Electoral College, Silver said, adding that he would normally only run 40,000 simulations.

“This is my fifth presidential election – and my ninth general election overall, if you count the midterms – and there has never been anything like this,” Silver said.

Silver said his model was a “direct descendant” of that Thirty-five Election forecast.

On Sunday, the election guru said any momentum Trump had in October was “extinguished in November.”

“We're most likely going to go into Tuesday night and the race will really be a back-and-forth, with neither leaning nor leaning toward Trump,” he added.

The predictive model comes days after a shocking new survey by the Des Moines Register and Mediacom in Iowa found Harris leading Trump in the state 47 percent to 44 percent.

Trump won Iowa in both 2016 and 2020 and the state – which has six electoral votes – was seen as a likely Republican victory.

In response to that poll, Trump made harsh comments during a rally on Sunday, calling it “oppression.” “They are oppressing, and it should actually be illegal,” he stressed.

An Emerson College poll showed a very different picture, showing Trump 10 points ahead of Harris in Iowa.