5 keys to a Trump victory

Donald Trump won more than 74 million votes in 2020 — more than any Republican presidential candidate in history, but not enough to win the popular vote or the Electoral College.

The loss remains an obsession for the former president and many of his supporters, whose refusal to accept defeat led to an insurrection at the Capitol and dominated political discourse for four years.

Most recently, Trump admitted he lost to President Joe Biden by a “razor thin margin,” although he quickly returned to repeated claims of voter fraud that have been debunked time and time again.

Instead of his desired rematch with Biden, who withdrew his bid for a second term in July after a disastrous debate performance raised concerns about his health, Trump is now fighting a battle with Vice President Kamala Harris.

If the race is as close as the polls suggest, the country may not know the results on election night. Here are five keys to a Trump victory.

The basic game pays off

Some of the Republicans' fiercest arguments have stemmed from nervousness over Trump's election machine, which the campaign has largely outsourced to groups like Charlie Kirk's Turning Point Action and the Elon Musk-aligned America PAC. It's not hard to find a GOP consultant eager to have a hushed but panicked conversation about the lack of field offices — once a data point spun as a sign of overwhelming strength in battleground states.

Identifying and mobilizing the voters a campaign needs to attract is about precision, with rewards given to low-propensity voters who can influence an election. And while Kirk and Musk are steadfast allies of Trump, neither has experience in pulling off the kind of sophisticated turnout that can win the White House. Musk's PAC has recruited professionals including veterans of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis' unsuccessful bid for the GOP presidential nomination.

Here are five keys to a Harris victory

A sloppy door-knocking operation could cost Trump the election. At this point, a clear warning sign for Trump emerged this week. Nine people associated with the Musk PAC described to NBC News an operation so fraught with problems – including faulty data – that it could hurt the former president's chances in battleground states that are narrowly decided.

The blue wall breaks

Speaking of crucial battleground states: It feels like so long ago, but there was a time when Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were clearly Democratic, or at least leaning Democratic, in presidential elections.

All three supported Trump in 2016 – the first time they favored a Republican for the White House since the 1980s. Trump's demolition of the Democrats' blue wall was key to his victory this year. And Biden's repair four years later, when he recaptured all three, was key to Trump's defeat in 2020.

These three states are once again among the top contenders, with polls showing a dead heat overall. And while Trump and Harris are also focused on Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina, it's hard to imagine either getting elected without at least one, if not two, blue wall states.

Trump and his vice presidential running mate, Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, are a consistent presence in the Big Three, and Vance was chosen in part because of his roots in a Midwestern manufacturing town similar to those in neighboring Michigan and Pennsylvania. Meanwhile, Trump is ending his election campaign as he did in 2016 and 2020: with a rally in Grand Rapids, Michigan.

But Trump has also deviated from the tried-and-tested battleground in recent days, pushing for trips to New Mexico and Virginia, neither of which are believed to be in play. Those decisions could come back to haunt him if it turns out the time could have been better spent, such as in Wisconsin.

Nikki Haley voters stick with Trump

Independent-minded and moderate Republicans who responded to Haley's unsuccessful White House campaign make up a significant portion of the electorate – she received between 10% and 22% of the vote in several Republican Party primaries, even after she ended her campaign.

Harris has heavily courted those voters in the middle, boasting support from people like former Vice President Dick Cheney and his daughter, former Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyo.; former California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger; and former Rep. Fred Upton, R-Mich.

Trump appears to have done little to keep these voters in the GOP tent. His rallies continue to feature inflammatory rhetoric that fuels the party's right wing. At an event Thursday night in Arizona, Trump was particularly harsh about Liz Cheney, telling the audience that the former congresswoman wouldn't be a “war hawk” if there were “guns pointed at her face.”

Although Haley has made it clear while campaigning for other Republicans that she supports Trump, there appear to be no plans for a joint campaign between her and the former president at this point. Without a last-minute push, some Haley voters could stay home, vote for Harris or a third-party candidate, or write in someone else.

In a close race, that's not ideal for Trump.

Young men are coming

In a race likely to be won on the margins — and in a race where there is already a sizable gender gap — Trump's efforts to reach young men could give him an advantage.

An NBC News Stay Tuned/SurveyMonkey poll of Generation Z adults in August found that young women preferred Harris by 30 percentage points, but young men preferred Harris by just 4 points.

Trump's team is aware of the opportunity and has prioritized alternative media platforms popular with young men. In the final days of the campaign, Trump and Vance each interrupted their swing-state schedules to land in Austin, Texas, and conduct separate three-hour interviews with Joe Rogan, whose podcast has more than 17 million YouTube subscribers.

While Texas is hardly a battleground, “The Joe Rogan Experience,” which launched in 2009, is one of the most popular podcasts in the U.S., particularly among young men. Rogan typically attracts guests from a range of industries, including entertainment, sports, technology and politics.

Paying close attention to a demographic that could produce new voters could pay off for Trump.

Margins are shrinking among black and Latino voters

“What the hell do you have to lose?” When Trump campaigned in Michigan eight years ago, citing poverty, high unemployment and difficult schools, he made a pitch aimed at black voters.

He further predicted that he would win more than 95% of the Black vote in his 2020 re-election campaign. Exit polls from that year showed him winning just 12%. Latino voters preferred Biden over Trump, 65% to 32%.

Trump and his advisers have talked about narrowing Democrats' margin of victory among voters of color. There were promising signs — especially as polls showed Harris doing worse than Biden among Latinos. But Trump's rhetoric, as well as the rhetoric surrounding his campaign, continues to risk alienating many of these voters.

He compared Detroit, a majority-black city, to a developing country and called it a “mess” as he campaigned there this month. And at his Madison Square Garden rally in New York this week, comedian Tony Hinchcliffe fired up the crowd with racist jokes.

Hinchcliffe called Puerto Rico a “floating garbage island,” discussed cutting watermelons with a black friend, and rudely said of Latinos in general that they “love making babies” because “there's no pulling out.”

“They are coming in,” said Hinchcliffe, “just as they did our country.”

Arizona and Nevada have significant Latino populations. And Pennsylvania, the state that could decide the election, is home to the third-largest Puerto Rican diaspora in the country.