Polymarkets “Whale” bets on Trump fell by $3 million after odds shifted

• Polymarket's “whale” betting on a Trump victory had about $3 million in unrealized losses as of Monday morning.
• The closely watched bettor had a profit of over $10 million before Trump's odds fell last week.
• The individual controls a significant portion of the contracts tied to a Trump victory, with about $30 million at stake.

The “whale” placing big bets on Doland Trump winning the presidential election at Polymarket is in the red after betting odds shifted toward Kamala Harris over the weekend.

According to Polymarket data compiled by Business Insider, the anonymous election bettor, recently revealed to be a trader from France, had about $3 million in unrealized losses across his four known accounts as of Monday morning.

The bettor's unrealized gains and losses have seen volatile swings over the past week, accelerated by a shock poll out of Iowa released over the weekend that put Kamala Harris ahead of the former president in the reliably red state.

The Polymarket whale recorded unrealized profits of about $10 million towards the end of October, before Trump's betting odds began to decline.

Polymarket account Theo4, one of four controlled by the whale, recorded the largest loss on all of its bets, with a cumulative loss of $2.5 million as of Monday morning.

There has been much speculation about the identity and motivation of the person behind the reports, and numerous theories have been put forward in recent weeks about what may be going on.

However, in a report by The Wall Street Journal, which contacted the Polymarket whale, the person said that the bets were simply a confident opinion about the outcome of the election.

“My intention is just to make money,” the man, who goes by Théo, said on a Zoom call with reporters from The Journal last week.

“I have absolutely no political agenda,” Théo said in an email to The Journal.

Théo could pay $80 million if Trump wins the election, or he could lose all $30 million he staked in various bets if Harris wins.

The Journal noted that the individual was stuck in the trades due to the enormous size of his bets and the relatively low liquidity of the market.

According to Polymarket, Théo controls about 25% of the contracts needed for Trump to win the Electoral College and more than 40% of the contracts needed to help Trump win the popular vote.

If Théo were to liquidate these contracts before Tuesday's election, he would likely not be able to sell all of his positions at current prices, as too much selling pressure could significantly reduce the price of the contracts.

For example, according to Polymarket, a hypothetical sale of the 47 million Théo shares for Trump to win the election would be executed at an estimated average price of just $0.02, which would represent a 96% loss for the trader. Théo paid an average price of around 0.56 cents for the 47 million shares.

Meanwhile, a hypothetical sale of the nearly 20 million Théo shares for Trump to win the popular vote would be carried out at an average price of less than a tenth of a penny, which would amount to a near-total loss, according to Polymarket.

With so much money at stake, Théo said he was nervous, although he believes Trump has an 80 to 90 percent chance of winning the election.

“A surprise can always happen,” Théo told The Journal.