Can the Chiefs stay undefeated? Projection of Kansas City's season record with a nod to history

Somehow, someway, the Kansas City Chiefs are 7-0.

The two-time defending Super Bowl champions are used to winning, but the 2024 season was different despite the perfect record. The Chiefs have yet to break 30 points and have committed at least one turnover in every game. Four of their seven wins came on a single possession.

What are the chances that Kansas City can continue its winning streak in November, December and January? That could be what lies ahead for the NFL's only undefeated team.

What are the chances of a 17-0 season?

Kansas City modeling data shows Kansas City has a 2 percent chance of finishing the year undefeated The athleteThis is Austin Mock.

That sounds low – and it is – but Kansas City has at least a 62 percent win probability in nine of its remaining 10 games, according to Mock's projections. Kansas City has already won two of its program's three most difficult games – in Week 1 against the Baltimore Ravens and Week 7 at the San Francisco 49ers.

The only remaining game where the Chiefs have less than a 50 percent chance of winning is at the Buffalo Bills in Week 11. Mock gives the Chiefs a 47 percent chance of winning on the road.

You can find all of Mock's predictions for the season here.

The first half wasn't sleepwalking

The Chiefs may have picked up a handful of wins this season, but they also beat several potential playoff teams. Their first seven opponents have a combined record of 29-32 – or 29-25 if they don't play Kansas City.

Three of those teams, the Ravens, Atlanta Falcons and Los Angeles Chargers, have winning records. Another was the 49ers, last year's NFC champions. Patrick Mahomes emerged victorious down the stretch in head-to-head battles with Kirk Cousins, Brock Purdy, Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow, all of whom rank in the top 10 in passing yards per game.

Kansas City can thank its strong defense for the perfect start to the season, as every opposing offense against the Chiefs managed fewer yards than their season average.

The hardest stretch is ahead

The Chiefs' final 10 games may be easier than their first seven, but the biggest hurdles come next. Over the next three weeks, Kansas City will face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Denver Broncos and Buffalo Bills, three teams with positive point differentials and a combined record of 16-10.

The Bucs and Broncos, two teams with winning road records, travel to Arrowhead Stadium. Then the Chiefs travel to Buffalo for a date with the Bills, who have lost just one of their last nine home games – against the Chiefs in January.

Mahomes is 3-0 in the playoffs against Josh Allen's Bills, but just 1-3 in the regular season. A Week 11 win against a potentially undefeated Chiefs team would be sweet revenge for Allen after the playoff loss in January.

If Kansas City can leave Buffalo victorious, the probability of victory in all remaining games is 62 percent or greater. The Chiefs will play three teams in last place in their divisions (the Carolina Panthers, Raiders and Cleveland Browns).

The last three weeks could be ripe for spoilers.

In Week 16, Kansas City will play the 6-3 Houston Texans, the AFC South leaders. It will be the first meeting between Texas quarterback CJ Stroud and Mahomes.

Four days later, the Chiefs play at the Pittsburgh Steelers on Christmas Day – a Wednesday. To close out the year, the Chiefs travel to the Broncos to face a Denver team that could still be in playoff contention. Since 2015, the Chiefs have won 15 of the last 16 meetings.

How many NFL teams have gone undefeated?

Only two teams in the Super Bowl era – the 1972 Miami Dolphins and the 2007 New England Patriots – have finished the regular season undefeated. Miami won the Super Bowl while the Patriots lost to the New York Giants in one of the greatest championship upsets of all time.

In recent history it has been difficult to predict an undefeated season.

Since the Carolina Panthers started 2015 14-0, only one team (the 2020 Steelers) has started the year better than 8-0. (Pittsburgh got to 11-0 before losing four of its last five games.) Four teams since 2018 started 8-0 before losing in the ninth game.

Such a strong start didn't pay off in the postseason. The last undefeated team has not won the Lombardi Trophy since the Indianapolis Colts in 2006.

Since 2000, 25 teams have started at least 7-0. Only seven of those teams were able to extend their unbeaten starts beyond ten games.

Required reading

(Top photo: Ezra Shaw / Getty Images)