Can Sununu lead Ayotte to victory over Craig in New Hampshire?

“I think he was an excellent governor. I think he demonstrated what we call New Hampshire values,” John DiBernardo, 73, of Keene told me.

Sununu's support is one of Ayotte's greatest strengths – but he also takes up some of the spotlight she needs. Immediately before Ayotte's remarks, the governor jumped to the podium in his usual uniform of gray pants and a “SKI NH” jacket and sounded completely sincere as he declared that this was “great!” He told the crowd, “Success in New Hampshire is all about housing, and we're getting there.” He emphasized the need to continue bringing developers, banks, cities and his $100 million InvestNH fund together.

Sununu is an increasingly rare example of bipartisan leadership in a state that typically supports Democrats in national elections but that Republicans often do well at the local level. Nicole Ranulf, an undecided Democrat from Concord who I spoke to throughout the gubernatorial race, told me she likes Sununu because “he has pursued more liberal policies and more conservative policies.”

Sununu may be popular, but he is not all-powerful. He fought tirelessly against Donald Trump's main challenger, Nikki Haley, without success. And Craig also has a notable asset: Vice President Kamala Harris, who can be expected to boost turnout in some Democratic-leaning districts and leads the state by nearly seven points. Still, as president Biden won the state in 2020, Sununu won every county. And his word could carry more weight locally. “It’s always better when the president wins the race,” Sununu told me. But he is hopeful: “We are looking at the individual candidates. We’re so locally controlled here compared to other states.”

Still, the presidential election plays a role in some voters' assessment of Ayotte. “I know people who are definitely not going to vote for her because she spoke out against Trump last time,” DiBernardo told me, referring to her withdrawn support of Trump in 2016 after an “Access Hollywood” video was uncovered was in which Trump was involved in making crude comments about women. On the other hand, Rich Kelton, an 81-year-old retired UPS driver who left the Republican Party and became a Democrat because of Trump, told me at a Market Basket in Swanzey near the housing development: “Somehow (Ayotte) has lost her conscience.” , because she said she would vote for Trump this time.”

One of Ayotte's central promises is that she will stick with Sununu's overall approach to government, a promise that appears to resonate with many voters. At Market Basket, jewelry designer Evan Deutsch of Spofford told me, “I think she's just going to continue the Sununu way, and I think that's probably the right path for us.” He sees her experience in the federal government as an added advantage. Previously, Patty Kastle, a retired school accountant from Winchester, told me that she doesn't like any of the gubernatorial candidates, but if she had to choose, she would vote for Ayotte, adding, “I love Sununu, he was perfect.”

Craig, whose campaign did not respond to my interview request, is still very competitive despite her more limited experience in state politics. In fact, the race is Democrats' best chance to flip a governor's mansion this year. She needs some Sununu voters to win and rarely criticizes the outgoing governor by name. Instead, she is choosing to eliminate policies central to the Sununu path, such as school vouchers and phasing out income taxes on interest and dividends, in 2025. (However, she recently said on a Pod Save America podcast that it's “crazy and that Sununu voted for Trump after campaigning so hard for Haley.)

Her biggest attack on Ayotte was the issue of abortion, often reminding voters that Ayotte voted in the Senate to defund Planned Parenthood. Ayotte told me she would abide by state law that bans abortions after 24 weeks, except for fetal anomalies and the life of the mother. “If anything more restrictive is sent to my desk as governor, I will veto it,” she told me.

Ayotte's campaign targeted Craig over her tenure as mayor of Manchester, suggesting that under her leadership the city's drug and homelessness crisis worsened. “Manchester has been a troubled city for a long time… I want to know what decisions she made there,” Ranulf told me. Ayotte has also used the slogan “Don't Mass up New Hampshire” as a swipe at the Bay State's liberal tax and spending policies, which accuse Democrats of wanting to import. Craig has been fundraising with Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healey, which isn't doing much to assuage fears that liberal politics could move north.

Some voters are growing tired of the contradictions on both sides. “All you see are the negative ads,” Kastle lamented. Ranulf wishes the election would be more respectful, like Sununu's race against Molly Kelly in 2018, and said he was “very focused on promoting the things that he actually wanted to do rather than attacking her position,” DiBernardo said to me: “I’m sorry to see (Sununu) go, I wish he would run for another term.”

If Sununu had run again, he would probably be on his way to victory. And while Ayotte is the best choice to continue the Sununu path, it is not yet clear in this politically divided state whether his coattails will be enough to carry them to the governor's mansion.

Carine Hajjar is a writer for Globe Opinion. She can be reached at [email protected].