Tropical Storm Rafael is forming in the Caribbean and is expected to develop into a hurricane

Unrest in the Caribbean intensified into Tropical Storm Rafael on Monday afternoon. The storm is expected to develop into a hurricane on Tuesday.

Rafael, formerly known as Potential Tropical Cyclone 18, formed Sunday. According to the National Hurricane Center, as of 4 p.m. ET Monday, it was located about 175 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica, with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph and moving north at about 9 mph.

Rafael is the 17th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season and will be the 11th hurricane if it continues to strengthen as expected. The season lasts until November 30th, but peak activity is usually around September 10th.

The storm system is expected to reach the United States later in the week, the NHC said, and a tropical storm warning was issued Monday afternoon for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas. Parts of Florida and adjacent areas in the Southeast could see heavy rain by mid- to late week, although NHC forecasters said it was too early to make predictions about the impact on the Gulf Coast.

A hurricane warning is in effect for the Cayman Islands and a tropical storm warning is in effect for Jamaica.

The Cuban government has issued a hurricane warning for some provinces and a tropical storm warning for other areas.

Meteorologists expect the weather system to move near Jamaica late Monday and then near or over the Cayman Islands late Tuesday. At this point it could be near or at hurricane intensity. It is then expected to approach Cuba on Wednesday.

As of Monday morning, NHC forecasters said there was a “near 100% chance” that the storm would become a hurricane in the next 48 hours.

Rafael is expected to drop 3 to 6 inches of rain across much of the western Caribbean, with up to 9 inches in some areas. The heaviest rainfall is expected in Jamaica.

Minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica Monday evening, and a storm surge of up to 3 feet is expected in the Cayman Islands on Tuesday, the NHC said. Flooding and mudslides could also occur in parts of Jamaica and Cuba.