What Nate Silver said about Kamala Harris' chances

Pollster Nate Silver's reliable track record has made him the person many Americans look to for an election forecast they can trust.

With Election Day approaching Tuesday, many will be looking to silver again, especially as polls show the race remains extremely close, with Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump leading by just a few percentage points, often within a few percentage points of error.

Silver, who founded 538 but is no longer affiliated, said essentially the same thing, writing in an Oct. 23 column that “50-50 is the only reliable forecast.” The New York Times.

Newsweek summarized what Silver said about Harris, her chances of winning, how she might secure a victory and what other election outcomes are possible for her. Newsweek The Harris campaign emailed for comment.

Kamala Harris' latest opportunities

Silver put Harris' chances of winning at 46.2 percent on Thursday, calling it “very close to a coin toss.”

Both Harris and Trump would have to “outperform their polls” to win, he said, before explaining that polling and different methodologies could lead to both candidates being underestimated.

In his column, Silver wrote that Harris may be underrated in the polls because “pollsters are afraid of missing Mr. Trump again” and “they may be consciously or unconsciously making assumptions that favor him.”

Silver argued that Harris' chances of winning would be higher if marginal voters didn't vote, citing Democrats' strong performance over the past two years, in special elections, ballot referendums and the 2022 midterm elections.

But it's the “most motivated voters who are showing up in these low-turnout elections,” Silver said, adding that he believes Trump is winning over most marginal voters.

“So Democrats may be looking for lower voter turnout,” he said. “If these fringe voters don’t show up, Ms. Harris could outperform.”

What Silver's Survey Aggregator Says

Silver, a self-proclaimed journalist and applied statistician, shares his predictions in his Substack publication The Silver BulletinIt's a model he describes as a “direct descendant of the FiveThirtyEight election forecast,” which is known for correctly predicting the outcome of the 2008 U.S. presidential election in 49 of the 50 states and the 2012 U.S. presidential election in all 50 states.

In 2016, when 538 gave Donald Trump a 29 percent chance of winning, Silver was one of the few analysts to emphasize that this indicated a real chance that he could win. In 2020, 538 people correctly predicted that Joe Biden would win.

The Silver Bulletinwhich gives more weight to reliable polls, Harris was in the lead with 48.5 percent, Trump had 47.4 percent on Thursday. But it also put Harris ahead in just two — Michigan and Wisconsin — of seven swing states.

“If she loses Pennsylvania, Harris' Plan B would have to involve a two-state agreement: either Georgia or North Carolina plus either Arizona or Nevada or both Georgia and North Carolina,” Silver wrote.

Accordingly, Trump has a lead of 0.8 percentage points in Pennsylvania Silver BulletinGiven the averages, Nate questioned whether Harris should have chosen Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro as her running mate rather than Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, whom he endorsed in August, calling Shapiro an “extremely popular governor of what is by far the most important.” Swing state.”

Different election results involving Harris

Silver calculated the odds for several outcomes involving Harris:

• Harris wins the popular vote: 73.8 percent
• Harris wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College: 30 percent
• Harris receives the majority (at least 50 percent of the vote): 61 percent
• Harris wins in a landslide (double-digit majority in the popular vote): 1.1 percent
• Harris wins at least one state that Trump won in 2020: 50.7 percent.