Super Bowl 2025 odds: Still the Chiefs' world, but several teams are closing the gap

He's not quite there yet, but Patrick Mahomes is finding his swagger back. The Kansas City Chiefs are off to a 7-0 start for the first time in the Mahomes-Andy Reid era as they remain atop the NFL odds list at +400 to win the Super Bowl.

The two-time defending champions are followed by the Baltimore Ravens and Detroit Lions at a tie of +650, followed by the San Francisco 49ers (+850) and Buffalo Bills (+1000).

In terms of last week's movement, the Chiefs, Lions and 49ers' odds have decreased slightly and the Ravens' odds have increased slightly.

Here's a breakdown of the movers and shakers in the Super Bowl odds ahead of NFL Week 9.

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Super Bowl 2025 odds

All hail the kingdom of chieftains

Kansas City avenged its last loss – a Christmas Day upset against the Las Vegas Raiders – by beating those same Raiders and extending its current winning streak to 12 games, dating back to the 2023 season. Even though he performed much better in Las Vegas, Mahomes looks more human than ever this year (eight touchdowns, nine interceptions).

Luckily, he has a luxury that Tom Brady often had with the New England Patriots: an elite defense. The Chiefs have held every team they have played to 25 points or fewer this year and are currently ranked 5th overall in both yards allowed and scoring defense. But with the recent performance of Travis Kelce and the addition of another future Hall of Famer in DeAndre Hopkins, the Chiefs offense could soon catch up.

Dominant favorites: Lions and Bills

The Lions continue to look as dominant as ever, scoring a season-high 52 points in a win over the Tennessee Titans, raising their points per game average to 33.4 (No. 1 in the NFL). The Lions posted their first 6-1 start since 1956, with Jared Goff throwing for a whopping 85 yards (and three touchdown passes). The team also got a boost from massive special teams plays from Kalif Raymond, and Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery were the game's best one-two punch from the backfield. The duo's new nickname, “Sonic and Knuckles,” is perhaps my favorite backfield nickname of all time, and Gibbs and Montgomery live up to it with their combination of speed and power.

The Lions' defense also proved crucial in the win over Tennessee, forcing four turnovers and holding a fifth opponent in 2024 to under 20 points. Maintaining this trend could be the key to winning the following Week 9 NFC North battle against the Green Bay Packers (+1400 Super Bowl odds, more on that later).

The 6-2 Bills flexed their muscles on both sides of the ball with a 31-10 victory over the Seattle Seahawks. Josh Allen, James Cook and Khalil Shakir performed offensively while the Buffalo defense continued its strong play. The Bills have scored 20 points in their last two games.

Allen, of course, is the story as he continues to push for league MVP. He may have completed a 301 pass attempt streak without a pick, but with a 14:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, 73.8 QBR, and 17 total touchdowns on the year, he's still right in the middle of the MVP race.

Underperformer of the week: Ravens

As dominant as the Ravens have been this season, they have two surprising results: a Week 2 loss to the Raiders and a Week 8 loss to the Cleveland Browns. Lamar Jackson didn't play badly at all, but Jameis Winston got the better of him and cut the Ravens' winning streak to five. Baltimore has an important phase on the horizon. They'll look to bounce back when they host the surging Denver Broncos in Week 9 and need to turn right back to kick off Week 10 when they take on their AFC North rival Cincinnati Bengals on Thursday Night Football .

Still in the mix: Packers, Texans, 49ers

After meeting in Week 7, the Green Bay Packers and Houston Texans (+1400) got into the win column this week in their respective matchups with the Jacksonville Jaguars and Indianapolis Colts. Both took care of pesky underclass teams and shot to a 6-2 record.

To me, Green Bay's win was even more impressive considering Jordan Love missed most of the second half with a groin injury. Malik Willis stepped in, threw a scorer through the air and showed off his dual-threat ability on the floor. With Josh Jacobs having his second 100-yard game of the season and a defense that forced 19 turnovers (first in the NFL), the Packers' Week 9 game at Detroit is must-see television.

Our praise also goes out to the Niners for avoiding injuries, shots and illnesses this season. Even at 4-4, this team can be dangerous. Brock Purdy and Co. have all the skills in the world (as long as they're healthy), and while San Francisco's roster won't be as complete as it was at the beginning of the year, the league's reigning Offensive Player of the Year, Christian, exists McCaffrey, a possible return would be completely new for the Niners after their bye in Week 9.

49ers HC Kyle Shanahan told reporters that he would be “surprised” if Christian McCaffrey could play against the Cowboys on Sunday night, but added that San Francisco's star RB could be back after the Nov. 10 bye against the Buccaneers. pic.twitter.com/z62goGjRLW

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) October 21, 2024

Sleeper team to watch: Eagles

The Philadelphia Eagles aren't deep-sleeper Super Bowl contenders at +1200, but they are a team outside the top five odds that intrigue me. The Eagles are back to their midseason form after taking on the Bengals in Week 8, giving Philly its third straight win and 5-2 on the year.

Jalen Hurts' legs were on display once again, as his three rushing scores brought him to a total of 48 points since 2020 (the most for an NFL QB in that span). If he can continue to find AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith, and if Saquon Barkley continues to pile up yards on the ground, the Eagles will be tough for any team down the stretch.

(Photo by Jahmyr Gibbs: Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)