Can Wisconsin's Braedyn Locke break through Iowa's defense? 3 keys and a prediction

MADISON, Wis. – Quarterback Braedyn Locke was standing on the sideline at Camp Randall Stadium with less than two minutes left in the first half against Iowa last year when his season suddenly changed. Wisconsin starter Tanner Mordecai broke his throwing hand when he hit a Hawkeyes helmet while completing a short pass.

Mordecai stayed in for one more play, but put the ball in the box before looking toward the sideline and yelling, “I can't throw.”

In the first important moments of his college career, Locke quickly learned what so many players before him had about the challenge of facing Iowa's defense. He helped lead two third-quarter field goal drives but nothing more, was sacked in the end zone for a safety after fumbling, lost another fumble and threw an interception on his own in a 15-6 loss last pass.

Iowa won the Iowa way – one of six wins last season in which the Hawkeyes scored 20 points or fewer.

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“I think a lot of people would probably look at that and think that if you don't score a lot of points, you're very vulnerable to defeat,” Locke told reporters this week. “Well, not in Iowa. They find ways to win games when they score a lot of points and when they don't score a lot of points. I have great respect for it.

“They play complementary football. They are good in all three phases. An extremely high level of execution must be achieved. You won't make mistakes. And they will succeed if we make mistakes. We have to be really focused and focused on what we’re doing.”

Luke Fickell's Wisconsin team enters its game at Iowa on Saturday with a record of 5-3. (Jeff Hanisch/Imagn Images)

Locke has started eight times since that game and played significant snaps in the reserves in two more games due to injuries after replacing Mordecai against Iowa and starter Tyler Van Dyke against Alabama earlier this season. Although Locke has more experience than he did in this matchup a year ago, his ability to limit mistakes will continue to go a long way in determining Wisconsin's chances against Iowa on Saturday at 6:30 p.m. CT at Kinnick Stadium.

Locke has been intercepted in each of his five starts this season, including a devastating pick six against Penn State on Saturday that gave the Nittany Lions a third-quarter lead in a 28-13 win. Iowa doesn't have a top-five pass defense and scoring defense like it did last season, but the Hawkeyes are still very good, ranking in the top-25 in run defense, scoring defense and overall defense. They have forced 15 turnovers – including 10 interceptions – which ranks second in the Big Ten.

Here are three questions Wisconsin can answer Saturday, plus a prediction.

Can the defense slow down Iowa's running game?

Iowa has a bona fide star running back in Kaleb Johnson, who ranks second nationally in rushing yards per game (143.0), behind only Boise State's Ashton Jeanty. Johnson's 16 rushing touchdowns rank fourth nationally and are the third-most in a single season in Iowa history, even though there is still a month left in the regular season. He has scored at least one touchdown in eight straight games, which is the longest streak by an Iowa player since the Kirk Ferentz era began in 1999.

Johnson also doesn't beat his opponents with a series of 3-yard runs. He ranks fourth in the nation with an average of 7.84 yards per carry and leads the country with 20 carries of at least 20 yards. If Wisconsin wants a chance to beat Iowa, it starts by slowing Johnson down.

“Iowa is Iowa,” Wisconsin safety Hunter Wohler told reporters. “They’re going to do what they’re going to do. They will run the ball. They will play with stronger personnel, run between the tackles and give it to their good running backs. So we know what it is and now can we go out on Saturday and run it?”

The likelihood that quarterback Brendan Sullivan will start in place of Cade McNamara, who suffered a concussion last week against Northwestern, makes the matchup even more exciting. Sullivan was listed as the starter on Iowa's depth chart this week, while McNamara was not included on the two-depth list. Sullivan represents an ongoing threat that Wisconsin must contain. He rushed for 41 yards and a touchdown last week. Wisconsin has struggled with mobile quarterbacks this season, including Alabama's Jalen Milroe and Penn State's Beau Pribula in the second half on Saturday.

How does Wisconsin establish the run?

Let's face it: Wisconsin-Iowa games are usually won in the trenches, so each team's rushing attack will be the focus. Wisconsin looked so good at beating weaker opponents during a three-game winning streak because the Badgers racked up a staggering 736 yards in addition to a handful of big passes from Locke. Running back Tawee Walker accounted for 417 of those yards.

But during Wisconsin's loss to Penn State, the Badgers averaged just 3 yards per carry and finished with 81 yards. Punter Atticus Bertrams had the team's longest run from scrimmage with a 15-yard gain in the first quarter. Wisconsin has averaged 3.6 yards per rushing attempt in its three losses. Badgers coach Luke Fickell has repeatedly said he wants to lean on the offensive line to create a physical style of play. This is another game that will serve as a test of the group's progress.

Wisconsin needs to stop Iowa linebacker Jay Higgins from wreaking havoc if its offense wants to be successful. Higgins, who leads the Big Ten in tackles, had three games with 14 tackles this season and finished with 13 tackles and a fumble against the Badgers last season.

Can Wisconsin win back the Heartland Trophy?

Wisconsin did well to come out late last season with wins over Nebraska and Minnesota to ensure two trophies remained in the trophy case. But the Heartland Trophy remained with Iowa, which won consecutive games in the series for the first time since 2008-09. The Hawkeyes haven't won three straight since their four-game winning streak between 2002 and 2005.

Some of Wisconsin's best teams over the last decade have stood out for their ability to figure out how to beat Iowa. Perhaps no game was as epic as Wisconsin's 31-30 win at Iowa in 2010, which helped the Badgers advance to the Rose Bowl. But Wisconsin beat Iowa in 2014, 2016, 2017 and 2019 — all years in which the Badgers played for a Big Ten championship. Wisconsin hasn't beaten Iowa in Iowa City since 2018, and this game seems like an especially big deal considering where the Badgers are in their season.

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“This is, in my opinion, right up there with any college rivalry,” Wohler said. “It means a lot and it means a lot. I think both teams pride themselves on being tenacious and physical teams. Every time we get together it's going to be an exciting game. It's very proud to win this. I’ve had it once since I’ve been here, so we have to take it home this year.”

forecast

What is this Wisconsin team made of after a loss to Penn State? We'll find out on Saturday with another NBC primetime game as part of the toughest part of Wisconsin's schedule (No. 1 Oregon looms at home after a bye week). The players seem reasonably optimistic, which is at least a good sign that Fickell hasn't lost the team despite the odds. The problem is that the level of execution in big games just wasn't where it should be.

Iowa is unranked, but the Hawkeyes are formidable, and home-field advantage on the night will likely play a role, with fans at Kinnick Stadium right above the players. Iowa still has a solid, consistent defense under Phil Parker and has its best offense in four years with first-year coordinator Tim Lester. Those factors seem too much to overcome for a Wisconsin team still trying to find its feet under Fickell and overcome an emotional loss to Penn State.

Iowa 20, Wisconsin 14.

(Top photo by Braedyn Locke: John Fisher / Getty Images)