Who will win Iowa? – The Scarlet & Black

Vice President Kamala Harris is four percentage points (43-47) behind former President Donald Trump among the 656 likely voters in Iowa Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll conducted September 8-11 by Selzer & Co. Compared to the last poll, which had Trump leading President Joe Biden by 18 points (50-32), this poll suggests a close race in Iowa if the Election day is approaching. A GOP-sponsored poll conducted by Cygnal September 27-28 found similar results, placing Trump with a six-point lead (51-45).

Iowa has historically been considered a swing state with razor-thin margins of just 0.3 percent for Democrat Al Gore in 2000 and 0.7 percent for Republican George W. Bush in 2004. Then Iowa experienced a period of low Democratic support former President Barack Obama – with higher margins of 9.5 percent and 5.8 percent in 2008 and 2012, respectively – before Trump rode a conservative wave with margins of 9.5 percent in 2016 and 8.2 percent in 2012 2020 rode. If the September poll results hold true, this race will be closer than in any of the last four presidential election cycles.

“This is one of the best polls, really a high-quality poll,” Courtney Nava, assistant professor of political science, said of Selzer & Co., which conducts the Iowa poll. “But a poll is just a snapshot of time, and when you look at polls and the purpose of polls, it's not really intended to be a prediction. It is not intended to tell us who will win an election or who will lose an election. The better way to think about it is that it looks like there was a turnaround between June and September.”

“I was surprised, but probably shouldn’t have been,” political science professor Barbara Trish wrote in an email to The S&B in response to the poll data. “Given fundamental sampling errors, the Iowa poll snapshot in September may be a little closer to what we saw in the 2020 vote. Or, I suppose, an even more dramatic departure from it. And it was September, so maybe we caught the Democrats basking in the glory of a new candidate.”

“Well, it (the polling data) showed me that a big part of the problem for Iowa voters was that Biden was too old as a person. I think that was most of it. And his ability to communicate decreased significantly, he didn't have the energy,” said Professor Wayne Moyer.

History professor Sarah Purcell also highlighted the pollster's quality, calling Selzer & Co. “the gold standard of political polling.” “But even for the highest quality survey, putting too much emphasis on a survey is never a good idea,” Purcell said.

Purcell emphasized the importance of considering many different types of information, including a historical perspective, when trying to predict the politics of a particular state. “As a historian, I would say it’s too early to tell — a poll or even an election probably isn’t enough,” Purcell said. “I'm not as willing to predict the future as I may only be able to see patterns and possibilities that are open because of the events that have happened.”

Purcell, Moyer, Trish and Nava all said answering the question about the evolution of politics in Iowa requires looking at state and local races, not just the national context.

Since 2016, Iowa has experienced a Republican wave at all levels. Both senators, all four representatives and the governor of Iowa are currently Republicans, and Republicans outnumber Democrats in the state House of Representatives (64-36) and state Senate (33-16). However, Surveys Polls conducted by the DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department, GQR and RMG Research indicate that congressional races in Iowa's 1st and 3rd districts will be competitive in the upcoming elections. “If we saw a shift in some congressional districts, if we saw more of a shift in some statewide races, then I would be willing to say there is more of a trend over time,” Purcell said.

“I would like more evidence than a poll to conclude that Iowa is competitive, even if you just focus on the presidential race,” Trish wrote. “Maybe Democrats can pick up some state legislative seats, but it would take a lot to shift party control — or remain competitive.”

Despite their insight into Iowa State politics, Moyer, Nava, Trish and Purcell were hesitant to make predictions. “I think we could still be a swing state,” Moyer said. “Never say never,” Nava said. “I would be very surprised if Harris wins Iowa,” Purcell said. “But I wouldn’t be surprised if one or more of the congressional seats flipped.”