Scientists See Global Warming Link to Floods in Spain: NPR

A man walks through a street covered in rubble after flash floods hit eastern Spain, October 30, 2024. Climate scientists say global warming is making extreme rainfall events like this more likely.

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At least 205 people have died and dozens are still missing after floods and mud swept through towns in eastern Spain.

It is one of the deadliest weather events in modern Spanish history, and climate scientists believe it is linked to human-caused global warming.

Climate change has made this week's heavy rains about 12% heavier and twice as likely, according to a rapid analysis by World weather mappingan international network of scientists assessing the impact of climate change on major weather events.

“There is a clear climate change footprint seen in events like this.” Daniel Swaina climate scientist at UCLA who was not involved in the analysis wrote in an email.

For decades, climate scientists have warned that global warming, caused primarily by humans burning oil, gas and coal, would lead to severe flooding.

A hotter atmosphere caused by the burning of fossil fuels can contain more water vapor, which can lead to heavier rainfall. At least the world is now 1.3 degrees Celsius (2.3 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than in the 19th century. Climate research determines a temperature increase of 1.3 degrees means the atmosphere can hold about 9% more moisture.

In places like Chiva, a town near Valencia, A year's worth of rain fell in just eight hoursaccording to the Spanish Meteorological Agency.

“One of the clearest short-term consequences of global warming, alongside rising temperatures themselves, is the increase in the most extreme rainfall events,” writes Swain.

Scientists say the floods in Spain also likely have a climatic link to super-hot oceans. Climate change is the main driver record-breakingly hot oceans. When seawater is hotter, storms can draw in additional moisture.

A Analysis from Climate Central, A nonprofit research group has concluded that global warming likely increased temperatures in the part of the Atlantic Ocean where most of the moisture contained in the storm originated.

“The devastating floods in Spain are the latest example of the type of extreme climate events that scientists have been warning us about,” Rebecca Carter, director of climate adaptation and resilience at the nonprofit World Resources Institute, wrote in an email.

She writes that the floods highlight the need to improve early warning systems to quickly get people out of harm's way. She writes: “As the climate continues to destabilize, no place can expect to be spared from such unprecedented disasters.”