Notre Dame College Football Playoff Guide: Which Games Matter Most to Irish?

SOUTH BEND, Ind. – You may have never heard of Rich Clark. That's okay. It's probably temporary too.

The first-year College Football Playoff general manager attended Notre Dame's opening win at Texas A&M over Labor Day weekend, while the former Air Force lieutenant general assumes the role held by Bill Hancock for the previous 12 seasons. If the new 12-team CFP has a spokesman, it's Clark.

And Clark had a microphone this week, trying to build expectations before the first CFP rankings of the season are released on Tuesday.

For Notre Dame, what Clark said is worth paying attention to. Because it feels like the goalposts are moving before they are installed.

The Pulse newsletter

Free, daily sports updates straight to your inbox.

Free, daily sports updates straight to your inbox.

Sign in

Clark was asked about conference championship games and their impact on the final rankings, which are still more than a month away. Notre Dame will not play in a conference title game and will forgo a chance at a first-round bye. However, it was assumed that teams that were defeated on championship weekend would also suffer a loss in the rankings.

Because if there is reward, shouldn't there also be risk?

Riley Leonard has led Notre Dame to six straight wins. (Vincent Carchietta/Imagn Images)

“I don’t think a team would be unduly penalized for losing in a conference championship game,” Clark said this week. “The fact that they are in a championship game I don’t think will be a key data point that the committee will evaluate. It’s just going to be what happened in that game.”

In a literal sense, that could mean that if Notre Dame and a Power 4 team both finish 11-1, the conference team that loses on championship weekend won't be penalized. Or, to put it in a more realistic scenario, if BYU and Iowa State both meet undefeated in the Big 12 Championship Game, the loser would be treated by the committee as a 12-0 team after the loss. Or maybe Penn State vs. Oregon in the Big Ten. Or even Clemson vs. Miami in the ACC.

You understand what's important. Because for all algorithms that are available to project the field The athlete (or anywhere else) there is a human element that we don't understand because no one has ever fielded a 12-team field. How much does beating a potential SEC champion help? How much does it hurt to lose to a mediocre MAC program? It's impossible to know what trapdoors might open for Notre Dame, whether they'll push the Irish out of hosting a first-round game or perhaps even eliminate them from the field altogether.

Go deeper

2024 College Football Playoff Predictions: How Week 9 Affected the 12-Team Bracket

As Notre Dame heads into its second bye week, here's a viewer's guide to the games that are most important for the Irish to get into the 12-team field and how far they could climb in these rankings.

Litmus test: Ohio State at Penn State

Notre Dame, Ohio State and Penn State all played similar schedules, according to the Sagarin rankings, with the Irish (No. 56), Buckeyes (No. 52) and Nittany Lions (No. 43) all tied together. If No. 3 Penn State (7-0, 4-0 Big Ten) were to suffer a home loss to a top-10 team this weekend, would James Franklin's program fall behind Marcus Freeman's squad in the top rankings? that's hard to say. Or what if No. 4 Ohio State (6-1, 3-1) suffered a second loss, but both faced top-five teams? Would the Buckeyes, fresh off a win against Nebraska, fall behind Notre Dame with two losses?

One way or another, Notre Dame will get a data point next week on how it compares to a Big Ten heavyweight. If Penn State wins, it would all but eliminate Ohio State from Big Ten Championship Game contention. The Buckeyes wouldn't suffer a terrible loss, but they wouldn't suffer a great win either. If Ohio State wins, it would be the same for the Nittany Lions: not a big win, but not a bad loss.

Ohio State still hosts Indiana and Michigan in the final two weeks of the regular season. That means the Buckeyes will receive national attention even if they lose in State College. However, Penn State could be out of sight with a loss considering it closes with Washington, Purdue, Minnesota and Maryland. And one loss might be too much to reach the Big Ten Championship Game.

The best case for Notre Dame? Probably a Penn State win.

Insidious problem…SMU?

As tempting as it may be to look at the rankings to see how high Notre Dame can climb by Selection Sunday, there is one former Group 5 program that shouldn't be overlooked: No. 20 SMU (7-1, 4-0 ACC) hosts No. 18 Pittsburgh (7-0, 3-0) this weekend, with the Mustangs a 7.5-point favorite at home.

If SMU beats Pitt, the ACC newcomer will likely win – Boston College, Virginia, Cal stay – and there's a good chance the Mustangs would miss the ACC Championship Game if Clemson and Miami win, which is likely fifth seed in the league activates tiebreakers (percentage of conference opponents' combined wins). The prospect of a team going undefeated in conference play and not getting a chance to advance to the CFP was, in a sense, the reason SMU failed in the American Athletic Conference in the first place.

The only blemish on SMU's record is an 18-15 home loss to undefeated BYU. SMU beat Louisville by a touchdown and beat Stanford… which probably sounds familiar for Notre Dame. Virginia presents a third common opponent, with the Cavaliers traveling to South Bend on November 16 before visiting Dallas a week later.

According to Sagarin, SMU ranks 58th on the schedule, compared to Notre Dame at 56th.

Notre Dame and SMU may seem like unlikely CFP contenders, but a look under the hood reveals more similarities than differences. But that all goes away if SMU loses at home to Pitt on Saturday night. And Pitt still faces Clemson on Nov. 16, which would likely leave the loser behind Notre Dame for good.

The best case for Notre Dame? Pittsburgh beats SMU and falls to Clemson two weeks later.

Go deeper

Nine Thoughts on Notre Dame's 7-1 Start: Is Riley Leonard Following Jack Coan's Action?

Please don't screw it up: Texas A&M at South Carolina

The win in College Station means Notre Dame has one of the best wins in college football this season. At least until Texas A&M loses again.

If that loss comes at home against Texas in the regular season finale, Notre Dame can probably live with it. The Aggies would be stuck behind Notre Dame for good and the Irish would still have a win over a 10-2 team in the SEC. The Longhorns would likely head to the CFP no matter what happened in the SEC championship game, likely a rematch with Georgia.

But that's all for December…

What Notre Dame needs now is for Texas A&M to emerge from Columbia unscathed, although the three-point lead in the Aggies' favor suggests a dangerous situation. It would be a blessing for Notre Dame to secure this “big win” by the time the first rankings are announced. Texas A&M faces New Mexico State and Auburn in the following two weeks before traveling to Texas on Thanksgiving weekend. If this “big win” makes it to Saturday, it will last through Thanksgiving weekend.

It's just hard to forget that South Carolina beat No. 5 Tennessee two years ago in Columbia. Those Gamecocks lost by 32 points in Florida a week earlier and then crushed the Volunteers.

The best case for Notre Dame? Phew. Texas A&M keeps winning.

Go deeper

Sampson: What did Notre Dame learn from the early NIU upset? How not to let it happen again

The Chain of Chaos: Everything else

These aren't the only games that matter to Notre Dame's CFP positioning, just the most obvious ones. Who would have called Alabama at Vanderbilt a CFP influence heading into Notre Dame's first bye week?

That's why Indiana at Michigan State and Texas Tech at Iowa State are also worth watching. The Hoosiers and Cyclones are undefeated CFP contenders who might be able to take a loss and still make the field, but it's hard to believe they would get ahead of a one-loss Notre Dame if they didn't somehow win their conferences would have.

There's also Louisville at Clemson, which would give Notre Dame another point of comparison against the Tigers, who have already beaten Florida State, Virginia and Stanford. Or how about a trip from Oregon to Michigan? This is a pure mess game for Notre Dame that probably looks like a bust on paper… but it's college football. Anything can happen.

That's why this weekend could be an earthquake for Notre Dame, even if the Irish sit at home and watch the madness unfold. Since the loss to Northern Illinois, the Irish have held up their end of the bargain. Now the rest of the real CFP candidates must do the same.

(Top photo by Marcus Freeman: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)