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    It is estimated that damage costs from the 2024 hurricane season in the United States will skyrocket
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    It is estimated that damage costs from the 2024 hurricane season in the United States will skyrocket

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    6 minutes, 4 seconds Read

    Preliminary economic damage data shows that 2024 is likely to be one of the more costly hurricane seasons in modern times.

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    With five hurricanes making landfall in the United States, the devastating 2024 hurricane season may not be over yet. With more than a month left, meteorologists are expecting a possible storm in the Caribbean.

    Even without another storm, the preliminary figure for economic losses – initial estimates are between $127 billion and $129 billion – means it is likely to be one of the costlier hurricane seasons in modern times.

    Comparing estimated hurricane damage over time can be difficult, but losses following the busy 2005 hurricane season ranged from around $175 billion to over $200 billion when adjusted for inflation. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, damages per hurricane have averaged nearly $23 billion since 1980.

    “This is a very impactful season overall,” said Jeff Waters, director of North Atlantic Hurricane Models at Moody's, a global research and analysis firm. “We are definitely entering a category where this season will stand out in terms of collective insurance losses.”

    So far, the catastrophic season has produced ten hurricanes, including four major hurricanes and five other named storms. There is scattered evidence of the devastation in at least eight states.

    More than 300 people have died in the USA. The search for the missing and efforts to restore services continue in the mountains of North Carolina. Huge piles of rubble line the streets in communities across Florida.

    In a recent preliminary report, Gallagher Re, a global reinsurance broker, said it “conservatively” estimated total economic losses from Helene and Milton alone at more than $100 billion.

    Billions in damage during the 2024 hurricane season

    Moody's, Gallagher Re and CoreLogic, a real estate data and analytics company, have released preliminary estimates of the storms' insured losses and economic costs. Here is a summary:

    beryl — After hitting the Caribbean and setting records for the earliest Category 4 and 5 hurricane, Beryl made landfall in Matagorda, Texas, on July 8 with winds of 80 miles per hour. Its remnants then produced more than 60 tornadoes and rain in a path through the Northeast. According to the Associated Press, at least 38 people were killed.

    Insured losses in the USA are estimated at between 2.5 and 4.5 billion US dollars. Total economic damage, including the Virgin Islands, is estimated at more than $7.5 billion.

    Debbie – Debby was the second hurricane to hit the same Florida county in less than a year. On August 5, Debby made landfall near Steinhatchee as a Category 1 hurricane and three days later made landfall again near Bulls Bay, South Carolina as a tropical storm.

    Estimates for insured losses range from $1.5 billion to $3.4 billion, with Gallagher Re estimating total economic losses at $7 billion.

    Francine – After forming in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, Francine quickly became a Category 2 hurricane and hit Terrebonne Parish on the Louisiana coast just three days later, on September 11, with winds of 100 miles per hour on land.

    The insured damage was estimated at $1.5 billion to $2 billion and the economic loss at $15 billion.

    Helene – After forming in the northwest Caribbean, Helene quickly developed into a major hurricane. It was the third hurricane to hit Taylor County, Florida in just 13 months when it made landfall on September 26 with winds of 140 miles per hour. Because it maintained high wind speeds and contributed to immense rainfall, it caused damage throughout the Southeast, including catastrophic flooding and landslides in North Carolina and Tennessee.

    So far, 227 deaths have been attributed to the hurricane. Insured losses were estimated at between $8 billion and $17.5 billion.

    Milton – The tiny storm barreled into the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico with winds of more than 180 miles per hour before hitting Florida as a Category 3 hurricane just a month after Helene. State officials have reported at least 29 deaths.

    The storm caused an estimated $17 billion to $36 billion in economic losses. Wind damage accounted for the majority of insured losses, ranging from $13 billion to $22 billion, according to CoreLogic, but that doesn't include all 43 tornadoes that struck the southern half of Florida.

    As Milton neared landfall, it “interacted with the jet stream over the southeastern United States, causing winds on the north and northwest sides of the hurricane – generally known to be weaker – to be unusually strong,” Daniel Betten said , Director of Forensic Meteorology at CoreLogic As a result, the storm produced “two distinct lines of damaging hurricane-force winds.”

    Together, Helene and Milton could cost the National Flood Insurance Program more than $5 billion, Moody's estimated, while Gallagher Re estimated the total cost of the two storms at more than $100 billion.

    Which hurricane season caused the most economic damage?

    Unfortunately, other current seasons also stand out, be it 2022 with Ian or 2017 with Harvey, Irma and Maria, Waters said.

    It can be difficult to compare hurricane seasons over time in terms of costs. Far more people than ever before live in hurricane-prone areas and have more expensive real estate. Research studies also indicate that more stringent building codes apply to the construction of structures than in the past.

    For decades, Roger Pielke Jr., a professor at the University of Colorado Boulder, has worked with other scientists on studies that normalize damage in hurricane seasons since 1900, taking not only inflation into account but also calculating wealth and coastal population. Pielke continues to update the numbers every year.

    His latest preliminary normalized estimates for 2024, presented Wednesday by Pielke, and previous studies show that the 1926 Great Miami Hurricane season would rank as the costliest in history at about $308 billion. The hurricane caused catastrophic damage in Miami and along the Gulf Coast.

    The infamous 2005 hurricane season is the second costliest ever on the normalized list. Total damage is estimated at $215 billion after seven hurricanes, including Katrina, hit the United States. Normalized losses for the 1900 season, which included Hurricane Galveston, were third at $176 billion.

    Because Pielke's latest preliminary estimates are only adjusted for inflation in 2024 dollars, the 2005, 2017, and 2022 hurricane seasons rank No. 1, No. 2, and No. 3, respectively, at $173 billion, $127 billion, and $118 billion, respectively.

    Growing concerns

    Increasing inland rainfall, such as the 31.33 inches before and during Helene in Busick, North Carolina, and the associated increase in flood-related deaths have become a growing concern for residents, the National Hurricane Center and the insurance industry.

    This summer's flood damage, as seen in the mountains of North Carolina and in the storm surge along the Florida coast, underscores a major concern – the gap between those who have flood insurance and those who don't, he said Waters. The activities of the last five to seven years “demonstrate the need to close this gap.”

    Improving the ability to assess risks

    For agents and insurance companies looking to write insurance, one of the challenges is understanding the evolving landscape, Waters said.

    Part of that is learning to use the catastrophe models developed to try to quantify near-term risk and look into the future, including the impact of the warming world on specific hazards, he said. “Climate change is definitely an area of ​​growing interest.”

    The Gallagher Re report indicates that 2024 remains on track to be the warmest year ever officially recorded. It says: “The fingerprints of climate change are becoming increasingly clear on individual events.”

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