Best bets for Houston Texans at New York Jets in NFL Week 9

Maybe I'm taking crazy pills, but”UNDER 42.5“ (except for 41) for the Houston Texans (6-2). New York Jets (2-6) on Thursday Night Football in the NFL Week 9 is a lock out. According to Pregame.com and Pro Football Focus (PFF), about three-quarters of bets are on the over. I would wait to bet on the Under until closer to kickoff in the hope of getting a better number.

Maybe the public thinks the total of “43” is too low for a Texans QB game CJ Stroud and Jets QB Aaron Rodgers. But both offenses suck and the defense is good. Houston is 20th in points per game and fourth in yards allowed per game. NYJ is second in yards allowed per game and 25th in points per game allowed.

Houston Texans RB Joe Mixon plays the ball against the Indianapolis Colts at NRG Stadium. (Troy Taormina-Imagn Images)

The Texans are also missing their two best pass catchers: WRs Nico Collins And Stefon Diggs. Regardless, establishing the run was a priority for Houston's coaching staff. Texans RB Joe Mixon has scored at least 25 carries and four 100-yard-plus performances in three of his five games this season.

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However, according to NFL data expert Sam Hoppen, NYJ's defense ranks 23rd in explosive run rate and sixth against passing. The Texans are second in explosive pass rate allowed and will force Rodgers to do so think and immerse yourself. Between Mixon's high usage and Houston's bend but don't break Defense, there should be a lot of running on Thursday.

Houston Texans QB CJ Stroud with the medical staff after sustaining an injury against the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium. (Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports)

After all, the Jets dominated the Texans in their 30-6 win last season. Houston had just 10 first downs and a season-low 135 yards. While Collins played, Stroud completed 10 of 23 passes for 91 yards and posted a career-worst QB rating of 54.8. New York knocked Stroud out of the game and missed the next two games.

Best Bet: UNDER 42.5 (-110) on Houston Texans vs. New York Jets

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“Same Game Parlay” at FanDuel (+1727)

• UNDER 42.5 for the game
• Jets QB Aaron Rodgers UNDER 229.5 yards
• Texans TE Dalton Schultz UNDER 40.5 yards
• Houston QB CJ Stroud over 8.5 rushing yards
• Texans RB Joe Mixon any touchdown

That is a Pizza money Bet. That said, don't bet a lot of money on it Same game play (SGP). There's a reason it's a 17-to-1 payout. The first stage of this SGP is straightforward as it is my “best choice”. As for the return game, 209 is the most passing yards Houston has allowed this season and it faces Jordan Love of the Green Bay Packers and Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills.

Schultz has surpassed 34 receiving yards once this season and ranks 28th among tight ends in fantasy points. According to PFF, Schultz has one of the worst coverage matchups of Week 9. Jets LB Quincy Williams is supposed to cover Schultz, and Williams has the 10th-best pass coverage grade among 74 NFL linebackers.

Houston Texans QB CJ Stroud battles against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium. (Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images)

My SGP includes Stroud's total rushing yards, as he has rushed for 12 yards five times this season. With New York boasting one of the best pass rushes in the league and Houston ranking 20th in sack rate allowed, Stroud will need to use his legs on Thursday.

Finally, Mixon has scored a total of six touchdowns (five rushing and one receiving) in his five games this season. Additionally, if I add Mixon's Anytime TD to my under for the game, my SGP payout increases exponentially since these are opposite bets.

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery ClarkFor more betting content and random rants, check out my OutKick Bets Podcast. I'm adding over X bets to my 2024-25 NFL betting record throughout the season.