NHC and AccuWeather warn of a new storm in the Caribbean. Polk forecast

The chances of Tropical Storm Patty forming in November have increased.

National Hurricane Center forecasters now say there is a 50% chance of a widespread low pressure area developing over the southwest Caribbean Sea becoming a tropical depression over the weekend or early next week. AccuWeather forecasters put the probability at nearly 90%.

“Should tropical development occur in the Caribbean Sea next week, there are two scenarios for movement: one toward Central America and one near the Yucatan Peninsula,” AccuWeather meteorologist Grady Gilman said. “A more northerly direction would increase the risk of impacts to the eastern Gulf Coast, likely during November 6-11.”

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While the conditions that led to Hurricanes Helene and Milton remained the same, the area was kept relatively calm by strong wind shear that prevented showers and thunderstorms from forming. But that will soon be over, according to Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather's senior hurricane expert.

“Next week, most of the wind shear will shift to the north of the Caribbean, essentially creating a zone of high ocean temperatures, lots of moisture and very low wind shear that will be favorable for tropical development,” DaSilva said.

There is also another area with little chance of development this weekend or early next week. This is located east-southeast of Florida, according to AccuWeather, but is unlikely to develop.

The 2024 hurricane season isn't over yet, and storms in November (and even December) are quite possible. The next named storms of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will be Patty and Rafael.

Here is the latest announcement from the NHC as of 5 a.m. Thursday, October 31:

Tropical Storm Patty? Is another storm or hurricane heading toward Florida?

If Patty develops next week, there are two possible paths depending on conditions.

An area of high pressure expected to develop over the East Coast of the US next week could determine where this goes. If strong enough, it could push the storm into Central America. Otherwise, the storm could threaten the Florida coast.

November brings tropical development closer to Florida, USA

Since 1851, three hurricanes have hit Florida in November.

While tropical waves typically appear off the African coast in the months leading up to the Atlantic hurricane season, giving people plenty of notice as they move across the Atlantic, this is not the case in the final month of the season.

“As November begins, the focus of tropical development shifts closer to the United States. Typically the focus is in the Caribbean and off the southeast coast towards the end of the season,” said DaSilva.

Another area to watch is southeast of Florida, USA

According to AccuWeather, this area currently has little chance of development. There are two scenarios with this system:

It could be pushed out to sea with no impact on the United States
It could be absorbed by the current system in the Caribbean as it moves north past Cuba and Hispaniola.

A tropical depression could form in the Caribbean later this week

An extensive low pressure area is expected to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea by the end of the week.

Gradual development is possible thereafter and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week as the system drifts generally north or northwest over the central or western Caribbean Sea.

Chance of development within 48 hours: low, close to 0 percent.
Educational opportunity over 7 days: medium, 50 percent.

What can Polk County expect this weekend?

Highs will be in the mid 80s and lows in the upper 60s, with a very low chance of rain. The National Weather Service in Tampa says the best chance of rain in Polk County on Saturday is 20%. Accuweather says the chance will be slightly higher at 30% on Monday.

This is the NWS forecast through Monday:

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 85. East wind 7 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.

Thursday evening: Mostly clear, with a low around 66. East wind 5 to 9 mph.

Friday: Slight chance of rain after 2 p.m. Sunny, with a high near 86. East northeast wind 5 to 10 mph.

Friday evening: Mostly clear, with a low around 69. East northeast wind 6 to 9 mph.

Saturday: 20% chance of rain after 2 p.m. Sunny, with a high near 86. East northeast wind 6 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Saturday evening: Mostly clear, with a low around 69. East northeast wind 6 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 86. East northeast wind 6 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.

Sunday evening: Mostly clear, with a low around 69. East northeast wind 6 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 86. East wind 7 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.

Monday evening: Mostly clear, with a low around 70.

What else is there and how likely are they to intensify?

The National Hurricane Center is also monitoring two tropical waves:

Central Atlantic: A wave is moving west along 53W/54W, south of 15N, at just under 18 mph. A few showers are present near the wave axis.
Central Caribbean: A tropical wave lies over the central Caribbean. Its axis is along 73W, south of 17N, and is moving westward at 7 to 10 mph. The wave appears to be increasing convection over western Venezuela and northern Colombia.

Who is likely to be affected?

Regardless of developments, widespread rainfall is expected across much of the Caribbean this week, AccuWeather said. Even in the unlikely event that a tropical depression or storm does not develop, life-threatening mudslides and flash floods can occur.

Residents from across the state of Florida to the Carolinas should keep a close eye on the current system in the Caribbean, DaSilva said.

Meteorologists urge all residents to continue to monitor the tropics and always be prepared.

Weather warnings and warnings are issued in Florida

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When is Atlantic hurricane season?

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th.

The Atlantic Basin includes the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.

Countdown Clock: When does hurricane season end?

Interactive map: Hurricanes and tropical storms that passed near your city

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(This story has been updated to add new information.)