Juan Soto's free agency is coming: predictions, suitors, rumors

It's Juan Soto's free agency season!

The Los Angeles Dodgers' five-game World Series victory over the New York Yankees means the MLB offseason begins a few days earlier than many expected, putting Soto's highly anticipated free agency in the spotlight.

Will the 26-year-old generational slugger get $500 million, $600 million or even $700 million this winter? Will there be a showdown in New York between the Yankees and Mets to land this winter's most sought-after star – and which other MLB teams might be heavily involved? What could make the difference in acquiring the first free agent in this year's class?

We asked our MLB experts to break it all down, with Kiley McDaniel predicting Soto's upcoming payday and Jesse Rogers identifying the teams that could sign him.

How much will Soto get?

When we projected potential Soto contracts with the help of 28 MLB insiders in June, the average reaction was already close to $500 million – and the predictions were even bolder when we polled the industry again in the offseason. No wonder, as Soto's standout season in the Bronx and starring role this October have only increased his value.

Under $550 million (3):
10 years, $500 million (Yankees)
13 years, $520 million (Mets)
12 years, $540 million (Yankees)

$550 million to $599 million (3):
10 years, $550 million (Mets)
12 years, $555 million (Yankees)
14 years, $588 million (Yankees)

$600 million to $699 million (7):
14 years, $600 million with exit after five years (Yankees)
12 years, $600 million (Mets)
12 years, $600 million (Yankees)
10 years, $600 million (Mets)
13 years, $611 million (Yankees)
15 years, $630 million (Yankees)
10 years, $655 million (Dodgers)

At least $700 million (2):
15 years, $715 million (Yankees, deferrals to a net present value of $500 million)
15 years, $715 million (Mets, deferrals to a net present value of $660 million)

The median/average forecast in June was about 12.5 years, an average annual value of $40 million and a total value of $500 million. It seemed clear that most of the panel started with that round number for the total guaranteed amount and made adjustments based on the market, perceived Soto preferences and possible competitive bidding.

This time the panel focused on around 13 years, $46 million AAV and $600 million total – a 15% increase in AAV in four months.

Many sources believe Soto's camp is looking to exceed certain benchmarks in Shohei Ohtani's record-breaking deal from last offseason: the net present value calculation of total consideration ($460.8 million) and AAV ($46.08 million). They will certainly also push for the largest possible guarantee, with deferrals and year extensions (to reduce the CBT value of the contract) as a means of getting there.

As our answers show, that means the final terms could be presented in different ways, but any deal predicted by our insiders this month would guarantee Soto the highest totals available to a free agent outside of Ohtani's deferrable $700 million -Deal to be paid. This significantly exceeded Aaron Judge's second-highest contract with the Yankees, which was nine years and worth $360 million.

Who are the most likely applicants?

Most of our answers included predictions that Soto will stay in New York, be it with the Yankees or the Mets, but those certainly won't be the only teams in the running to sign him.

It has felt in recent years that some free agents have had to rely on a small group of teams willing to reach a desired number, but the list of teams that can fit Soto into their team structure and budget is long enough that he shouldn't have waited long to decide.

Here are the seven most likely candidates from our sports-related conversations.

New York Yankees: Obviously, the Yankees are expected to be Soto's primary suitor. After years of searching for a game-changing left-handed hitter, GM Brian Cashman probably doesn't want to start all over again when it comes to balancing his lineup and complementing Aaron Judge. Especially not when Soto has stood out in the New York spotlight and said all the right things about how much he loves his new city and his team.

New York Mets: The pairing of Soto and Francisco Lindor could be a dream come true for Mets owner Steve Cohen, who can easily afford to sign Soto — especially given all the money the Mets have on the books. New York won't be able to pay Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer in 2025, and they have plenty of money on the free agency books. The Mets have a decision to make on free agent Pete Alonso, and his departure would create a huge power void on the team – one that Soto would fill and then some.

Texas Rangers: Texas wasn't happy with a repeat attempt in 2025 that fell far short of expectations, and after the offense took a big step back, the Rangers were left wondering which young players were really eligible. Soto would give them another hitter in Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, and he's actually still younger than some of the hitters Texas is waiting to develop. A major weakness for Texas was an offense that ranked 26th in OPS against right-handed pitchers: pairing Soto and Seager would undoubtedly change those numbers for the better. We've already seen the Rangers hand big long-term contracts to hitters – the only problem this offseason could be another year of financial constraints due to a lack of local television revenue.

Washington Nationals: It would be a good story: The prodigal son of the team that originally signed him from the Dominican Republic is coming home for an even higher salary than the one he turned down in 2022 ($440 million). Maybe it's a long shot, but general manager Mike Rizzo has quietly indicated he's ready to move forward with his mini-rebuild, and without a star or two in the lineup, Washington will have a tough time in a crowded NL East to keep up. If Rizzo can pull off a reunion with Soto, it would be one of the greatest GM sequences in recent history: getting a pickup from San Diego in exchange for a superstar to kick-start the rebuild, then re-signing that player when the Reconstruction begins next phase.

San Francisco Giants: The Giants are always intriguing, they have enough money for seemingly everyone in the sport but are constantly unable to bring in superstars. Their previous GM, Farhan Zaidi, simply failed to attract top stars, but could that change with Buster Posey now running baseball operations? It won't be easy: San Francisco isn't seen as an attractive landing spot by all players and agents, and some hitters see Oracle Park as an additional obstacle at a time when hitting is more difficult than ever. Posey would be key to making a Soto deal happen, as he helped keep third baseman Matt Chapman around – and worked with Soto's agent Scott Boras on that deal.

Toronto Blue Jays: Toronto found itself in the spotlight — perhaps more through overzealous social media reports than reality — when its pursuit of Shohei Ohtani began last offseason. But the theory was based on smart thinking: The Blue Jays' offense has become too much of a right-handed group, ranking 30th, 26th and 27th in home runs by lefties over the last three years. After Toronto defeated Ohtani, the club simply took back what they had this season – and failed miserably. The front office still needs that left-handed bat. So if it brings back most of its team — including retaining Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — Toronto should throw all its chips at Soto.

Los Angeles Dodgers: The World Series champion Dodgers are never left out of the race for the best players in the world. Yes, they already have a huge payroll, but thanks to Ohtani's impact and of course their local TV deal, they make an incredible amount of money. It's unclear if they would need Soto to take deferrals or even want to add to the $300 million on the books, but LA is star country and Soto fits the bill.