Tropical disturbances in the Caribbean could develop into next week when the probability increases slightly

TAMPA, Fla. – The National Hurricane Center estimates a 50 percent chance of a disturbance developing in the Caribbean over the next seven days, but many uncertainties remain.

The National Hurricane Center estimates there is a 50 percent chance of a low pressure system developing in the Caribbean over the next seven days.

Where might the wave go if it develops?

According to FOX 13 meteorologist Dave Osterberg, models don't yet agree on exactly where the low pressure system could develop or where it would go. It could head northwest into the Gulf of Mexico or turn northeast toward the Atlantic Ocean.

If a system develops in the Caribbean, it could move northwest toward the Gulf of Mexico or northeast toward the Atlantic Ocean.

As it moves into the Gulf, Osterberg said conditions will be different than the warm waters that have fueled recent major hurricanes.

“The water in the Caribbean is very warm and deep, but look how much cooler it is in the Gulf of Mexico,” Osterberg said. “It is late October to November and the water temperatures tend to cool down. Therefore, the low heat content will also play a role.”

FOX 13 meteorologists say lower water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico will create different conditions this time as a system develops and moves into the Gulf.

If the wave actually develops, it probably won't happen until next week, according to Osterberg.

The next storm to be named in the Atlantic basin will be called Patty.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially ends on November 30th.

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