Mild or wild? The winter forecast for Washtenaw County is taking shape

WASHTENAW COUNTY, MI – As forecasters watch how wintry this winter could be, emergency responders across Washtenaw County are preparing for whatever Mother Nature throws our way.

It's unlikely that southeast Michigan's winter will be as mild as last winter, which brought below-average snowfall and higher temperatures.

But how wet, snowy and cold this winter will be is the million dollar question.

Weather experts from NOAA and Accuweather recently released dueling winter forecasts. NOAA has much greater confidence in above-average precipitation, but AccuWeather's precipitation forecast also shows plenty of moisture.

Meteorologists are paying attention to the emergence of La Niña, a weather pattern that causes water temperatures on the surface of the equatorial Pacific Ocean to drop cooler than normal. During La Niña season, this could lead to above-average precipitation in Michigan and more chances of ice and snow on colder days.

However, La Niña formation was slow, suggesting it could be weaker than previously forecast.

But that doesn't mean we're in for a potentially wetter winter, which could result in dangerous conditions on the roads and power outages.

Last year's winter was “pretty benign,” Washtenaw County Emergency Operations Director Benjamin Pinette said during the annual meeting of the county's Snow Emergency Council on Friday, Oct. 25.

“I would like to say we are expecting or heading toward the same thing this year,” Pinette said. “However, that doesn’t necessarily seem to be the case.”

With a mild La Niña expected, “we're on the verge” of potentially more severe winter weather this year, he said. “I think we’re mostly looking at above-average precipitation and about average temperatures.”

The region averages about 45 inches of snow.

Last winter there was only about 30 inches of snow, and most of the winter weather occurred in mid to late January and March.

Each November, the county's Snow Emergency Council prepares a snow emergency plan. The council consists of highway and transportation officials, public works officials, school districts, fire and police departments, health systems, the Washtenaw County Sheriff's Office Emergency Services Division, other agencies and the media.

The council met Friday to discuss last winter's plan, which is expected to be nearly the same as this year's plan.

Much of the snow emergency plan revolves around all agencies tracking weather conditions and communicating them to coordinate responses if conditions become delicate or downright dangerous.

Of note, certain winter weather conditions on roads trigger either “snow condition yellow” or “snow condition red.”

“Yellow” means: “Very dangerous driving conditions exist with heavy snow or ice, drifting or reduced visibility.”

In this scenario, some local roads may be impassable and traffic is moving at reduced speeds, but highways are in good condition. Drivers are urged to “exercise extreme caution” and only drive if absolutely necessary.

When conditions are “red,” it means “extremely dangerous driving conditions exist on major highways and roads, with heavy snow and/or ice, severe drift, and/or extremely limited visibility.”

In this case, most local roads could be impassable, traffic would be gridlocked in some areas and “the entire road network could become completely unusable”. Drivers are being asked not to drive at all.

The Everbridge Notification System is a way to receive notifications of emergency situations via email and text messages sent by the county sheriff's office and other officials. Sign up for local Everbridge alerts at www.washtenaw.org/alerts.

Now is a good time to prepare for winter travel, and the county provides a list of essential equipment people should install in their vehicles. It includes:

• At least one extra can of windshield washer fluid
• Blankets or sleeping bags
• Jumper cables
• compass
• Fire extinguisher
• First aid kit
• Flashlight and spare batteries
• Ice and snow scrapers
• Matches and paper towels in a waterproof container
• Non-perishable, high-calorie foods
• Road maps
• sand or cat litter
• shovel
• Tool set
• Tow rope
• Water container

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