Expert predicts possible Election Day 'mirages' we could see as votes are counted

As Election Day approaches, many people across the U.S. may have questions about how votes will be counted after polls close. Depending on your location, you can cast your vote for various positions, including school boards, city councilors, and mayors.

This year, more states are likely to be decided with very narrow majorities. This could lead to campaigns or even foreign actors trying to stir up even more mistrust among voters as votes are counted. However, knowing what to look for will make this situation seem a lot less chaotic.

The chaos of the 2020 election can be attributed in part to significant shifts in vote counting. The results from traditionally Republican districts initially showed Donald Trump in the lead. However, as the count continued, more and more ballots were received from blue counties, giving Joe Biden a lead.

That's why you may remember Trump saying, “Stop the count.” As all the votes were counted, it became clear that Biden had won several nearby states.

On Wednesday, Brad Mielke, host of ABC News' “Start Here” podcast, spoke with Michael McDonald, a political science professor at the University of Florida who has been studying how votes are counted for years.

START HERE: Professor McDonald, let's assume that on election night everyone has voted and the polls are closed. We often see it said, “For 2% of districts we are not planning anything yet.” What complicating factors would make these early numbers not indicative of the broader results? What twists and turns do you expect?

MCDONALD: Yes, so we're leaning toward smaller communities being able to count and report their ballots more quickly. And then larger communities tend to take a little more time because they have to process more ballots. And so you get this discrepancy where these ballots may be counted first or reported first because Republicans tend to live in more rural, smaller areas. But then urban areas can count their ballots or announce their ballots later. So there's nothing bad going on. It is merely the timing of election officials' workload that determines when ballots are announced.

START HERE: OK, that's what I wanted to ask you. I've heard expressions like “red mirage”, a “blue shift”. That's what you're describing here, isn't it? If it takes a while to count mail-in ballots, it looks like one party is far ahead.

MCDONALD: Yeah, it really depends on the state. In some states we have this lead time. Florida, for example, where I live, has a lead time where election officials are already making all the necessary preparations so they can be up and running very quickly. And because we tend to suspect that this election, even though it might be a little different, we're going to suspect that these early voters are going to be more Democratic-leaning.

We could have a blue mirage and then a red mirage, but then a blue mirage again because election officials are counting the ballots that came back on election day. And these may or may not be democratically minded. There are some trends and dynamics in this election that differ from the past. Therefore, the past is not necessarily a good guide to what might happen to mirages this time.

START HERE: Yes, tell us about early voting, especially since four years ago there were such big differences between the parties, right? For the Democrats, it was all about early voting. They were primarily concerned with postal voting. Republicans were largely told by the then-president, “Vote on Election Day,” and they did. Will it stay that way this year?

MCDONALD: Well, we can already see that that's not true. And Donald Trump has given his supporters the green light to vote early in person. And we can definitely see Republicans showing up in large numbers to vote early in person compared to any previous election we've seen with early in person voting. Before 2020 we would have said: Yes, this personal early voting, then everyone will vote for Democrats. And it is actually the mail-in ballots that the Democrats vote on.

But the pandemic has changed that. And so it is now the Democrats who are much more likely to vote by postal vote. Of course, Trump continues to describe mail-in ballots as fraudulent. And that's what his followers hear too. And they are less likely to use postal voting where the option exists. Therefore, we ignore these states where only mail-in ballots are cast. Therefore, we expect these trends to generally continue on Election Day.

START HERE: But then, what do you think the likelihood is that we'll have an answer on election night? And what would upset that?

MCDONALD: Well, I mean, it's hard to say because we still have a few days of early voting ahead of us. I expect some of the patterns we've seen so far to shift a bit. And I would just say: stay calm. I mean, we won't really know until this weekend, at least as far as the distribution of Democrats and Republicans who voted early. So I would be careful when answering this question.

But let's run through some scenarios where, for example, when we're dealing with ballots that need to be counted, still mail-in ballots in places like Milwaukee or Philadelphia, we might wait a little bit late into the night to talk about it Hundreds of thousands of pieces of paper and envelopes that need to be opened and separated and identity verified. So it just takes longer in these big cities.

START HERE: It sounds like it might not even be hours, could it be days in some areas?

MCDONALD: It's been happening for days. Arizona was a very good example of this in 2020, when Republicans had mail-in ballots but were told, “You better vote on Election Day.” They had their mail-in ballots ready and dropped them off at polling places in Arizona, as required by law Arizona allows. Therefore, Maricopa County, where Phoenix is ​​located, had to count the ballots. And we knew they were Republicans. They weren't Democrats.

And so we actually saw more of a blue mirage in Arizona, where Biden had a lead and Trump supporters stood in front of the convention center, the counting facility in Maricopa County, chanting “Stop the count.” Biden was actually a leader. Then they had to change their chant to “Stop the steal,” which they realized after a day. Trump lawyers were inside. They were watching the count and needed those votes. So they watched very closely to make sure they were all counted correctly.

START HERE: All right. Buckle up. Michael McDonald from the University of Florida. We will be in touch after election night or election week or however long it takes. I really appreciate your insight.

MCDONALD: You're welcome.