Cannabis legalization could hit a “red wall” at the ballot box

The legalization of cannabis will be up for debate again this November.

Voters in Florida, North Dakota and South Dakota will decide whether to allow adults 21 and older to use cannabis recreationally in their states.

Nebraska voters will decide whether to allow access to medical care under physician supervision.

Voters in Arkansas see a question about medical access on their ballot, but the state's Supreme Court ruled that the votes cannot be counted because the measure's name and title were “misleading.”

The results of these ballot measures obviously matter to residents of each state, but they will also matter to the future of the cannabis legalization movement. This is because these states are all so-called red states in which Republicans dominate state politics. They are part of the biggest obstacle to the legalization movement – ​​what I call the “red wall.”

And with federal legalization unlikely in the next few years, red wall states are now at the forefront of the battle for cannabis reform.

At the beginning a non-partisan coalition

Cannabis legalization hasn't always been so partisan.

In fact, bipartisanship has been key to the success of the contemporary legalization movement that began in the 1990s.

How do I know this? Because that's what the people who made it happen told me.

I have been researching cannabis legalization in the US since 2014. I have sought to understand the success of the current legalization movement and what it means for the future of U.S. drug policy. As an anthropologist, I go where the action is happening and talk to people with life experience.

And so I talked to people in Colorado. In 2012, it was one of the first two states to legalize recreational use of cannabis, also known as “adult use.”

Today, 48 states and Washington DC have approved cannabis for some form of medical use, although 10 of those states have only legalized limited use of oils low in THC, the active ingredient in cannabis. Adult use is now permitted in 24 states and Washington for those ages 21 and older.

This is a dramatic change that overturns decades of bans.

Any political movement needs thousands of people to be successful, but it also needs leaders. In Colorado, lawyer Brian Vicente and activist Mason Tvert played key roles. With support from the Marijuana Policy Project, they spent most of the 2000s building the movement that made recreational legalization possible in Colorado.

When I asked Vicente and Tvert how they did it, they emphasized the same thing: to be effective, they would have to form a new kind of coalition. They had to appeal to people who had no personal interest in cannabis use.

In Colorado, they argued that marijuana should be regulated like alcohol and that tax money should go to schools. The fact that Colorado allowed ballot initiatives was also crucial. This allowed activists to take the issue directly to voters, bypassing opposition from the governor and other elected officials.

The strategy worked.

Liberals liked the arguments for social justice. Conservatives liked that it increased individual freedom. And a broad swath of voters liked that it would generate tax revenue and allow the criminal justice system to focus on more serious threats to public safety.

These voters voted for a strong coalition. And for years, such coalitions helped pass legalization measures in blue states like Oregon and California, as well as red states like Alaska and Montana.

Hit the red wall

But since 2020, legalization has become more partisan.

Of the 26 states where adult-use cannabis remains illegal, 20 are red states with a Republican trifecta, meaning Republicans control both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Another four — Kansas, Wisconsin, Kentucky and North Carolina — have Republican-controlled state legislatures and Democratic governors.

Pennsylvania is the only state in the country where legislative control is divided. Medical cannabis was legalized there in 2016, but recreational use is not permitted.

And Hawaii is the only blue state that has not yet legalized recreational cannabis. A narrower majority of voters support it than in other blue states, and there are unique concerns, such as the potential impact on the tourism economy.

All told, 92% of states where adult use is still illegal are dominated — if not entirely controlled — by Republicans, who are significantly less likely to support legalization than Democrats or independents. This applies to both elected leaders and rank-and-file party members.

Additionally, 16 of the 26 states that have not legalized adult-use cannabis do not have a voting process, meaning supporters cannot take the issue directly to voters. The states that will put measures on the ballot this November are in the minority that will do so.

Voters in states without ballot initiatives have no choice but to wait for their state legislatures to act. But most Republican-controlled legislatures have shown little interest in the issue, even when the majority of voters in the state support it — as in Iowa.

Will the red wall hold this November?

Based on polls and precedent, the red wall is likely to remain in place in the 2024 election.

In South Dakota, most voters oppose legalizing adult-use use, making the measure likely to fail for a third time.

Voters in conservative North Dakota have already rejected adult-use legalization twice, making success this year unlikely. On the other hand, it enjoys more support from Republican lawmakers than in other states, and more voters are undecided on the issue.

Nebraska's medical measure is likely to pass, but its future is uncertain. It faces an ongoing legal challenge, driven in part by the state's attorney general, Mike Hilgers, who is a staunch opponent of cannabis legalization.

And even if it survives the legal challenge, that doesn't mean legalization of recreational use is imminent. The latest poll of Nebraskans shows that recreational drug use is lower than medical use, particularly among Republicans.

Florida could go either way

The wild card is Florida. It has already legalized medical cannabis, and advocates have been trying to get adult-use use on the ballot for years.

Polls this summer showed a majority of Republicans supported the referendum, but more recent polls show a narrow majority now oppose the referendum.

There are probably still the necessary votes, but there are still a few obstacles.

First, it must be approved with 60% of the vote.

Second, it has divided party leaders, with the state's two most prominent Republicans, Donald Trump and Gov. Ron DeSantis, taking different positions on the issue. Trump says he is voting yes, while DeSantis says a resounding no.

And third, it has drawn the ire of some legalization advocates because it potentially gives a small group of large cannabis companies disproportionate control of the market. The concern is that the change, as written, does not require the state to increase the number of licensed businesses. Only companies that are already licensed would have the opportunity to expand into the recreational cannabis market.

These same companies are the primary funders of the initiative, with Trulieve alone donating the majority of the more than $90 million raised by the Yes campaign. The company already operates more than 150 medical dispensaries in Florida and is one of the largest cannabis companies in the United States.

Ironically, DeSantis' No campaign has put concerns about corporate control at the center of its own messaging, creating a potential coalition between people who oppose adult-use legalization under all circumstances and those who oppose it if it does there is too much corporate control.

Trulieve, in turn, has filed a defamation lawsuit against the Florida Republican Party over these claims.

Where the movement goes from here

Barring any major surprises this November, legalization advocates will need to find a new strategy to appeal to voters and lawmakers in red states. They must take public health and safety concerns seriously, address persistent racial disparities in cannabis arrests in legalizing states, combat growing corporate influence within the movement, and respond to moral criticism from people like former Alabama and U.S. Senators Prosecutors respond to General Jeff Sessions, who, simply put, believes: “Good people don’t smoke marijuana.”