Two suburban-centric congressional districts in Minnesota attract different attention

These are contiguous congressional districts in Minnesota whose cores are suburban populations. One shows a Democratic incumbent with a well-filled campaign account; the other is an open seat that not long ago was considered Republican territory.

But only one was on the national watch lists for U.S. House elections this year — and that's the 2nd Congressional District in the southeast metro area. There, Democratic Representative Angie Craig is seeking a fourth term.

Just across the Minnesota River in the western suburbs of the Twin Cities, Democratic Rep. Kelly Morrison is methodically marching toward joining the state House delegation in the 3rd Congressional District, where she is seen as favored over Republican Tad Jude. In comparison, it was a sleepy race.

It was another tug of war for Craig in the second round, which runs from Eagan and South St. Paul to Northfield. She is trying to withstand a tough challenge from political newcomer Joe Teirab, a former federal prosecutor and former Marine.

Katie Kendrick, who lives in Burnsville, said she doesn't know much about Teirab but plans to vote for him.

“Angie’s been there for a while,” Kendrick said as she took a break from arranging the Halloween decorations. “I think it’s time for a change.”

Kim Nutting, who lives in Eagan, said she would be happy to cast her vote for Craig.

“She’s smart,” Nutting said. “I think it’s for the people.”

Craig is well known, having run in the district four times. (She narrowly lost to Republican Jason Lewis in 2016.) And she is well ahead in the money race, which is useful for the commercials that have aired since late August and for efforts to win over the electorate.

Fundraising reports released last week showed that Craig has spent nearly three times more than Teirab — about $5.3 million to nearly $1.9 million — and that she has significantly more on hand in recent weeks.

The race already had more advertising coverage than the U.S. Senate race, which is a statewide contest.

On Saturday, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries stopped by to campaign for Craig. New York's Jeffries is poised to become House speaker if Democrats manage to erase a narrow Republican lead in the House, making the Minnesota race all the more important for these candidates.

“We absolutely have to make sure that every single one of our frontline members, our 31 frontline members, come back to Congress and Angie sits in one of the toughest seats,” Jeffries said as he knocked on the push in West St Paul.

In the 3rd District, Morrison also has a huge financial advantage over Jude. Morrison is a senator and a doctor; Jude is a former state legislator, former county commissioner and retired judge.

Morrison had spent about $900,000 by the end of September, compared to $240,000 for Jude. But Morrison had more than $1.1 million available for the final round to Jude's $58,000. Morrison began airing television ads last week.

Some voters said the race flew under the radar.

“I guess there really hasn't been much news about these people. We haven't heard much about her,” said Susan Bongaarts of Bloomington, who voted early for Morrison.

Open-seat races tend to attract more attention than this one, especially in an area that has sent a number of Republicans to Washington. That was until 2018, when Democratic Dean Phillips defeated a Republican incumbent and served two more terms. He decided against running for another term because his run for the Democratic presidential nomination was short-lived, ending in March.

Roz Johnson, another Bloomington resident who supports Morrison, said she believes Phillips has helped transform the district. The new district boundaries drawn after the last census also made things more favorable for Democrats.

“When we moved here in the '80s, this area was 50 percent divided, but it leans Democratic,” Johnson said as she enjoyed a warm fall day in a riverfront park.

Steven Schier, a retired political science professor at Carleton College, said former President Donald Trump had a lot to do with the change.

“The 3rd District has traditionally been a high-education, high-income district represented by moderate Republicans like Bill Frenzel, Erik Paulsen and Jim Ramstad,” Schier explained. “But highly educated and high-income people in this state and nationally are trending in the Democratic direction.”

Stan Danielson, an 86-year-old who lives in Bloomington, said he has voted for many Republicans over the years, but now he exclusively supports Democrats.

“I'm not going to vote for the Republicans because they're way too right-wing and I'm just afraid of them,” Danielson said.

Across the river in the 2nd District, 30-year-old Nathan Schmidt expressed concern about the economy and border security. He plans to vote Republicans up and down the ballot.

“In the 2nd district there are still some of these rural areas that are very conservative,” says Schmidt. “I think it balances out some of the more left-leaning suburbs that are part of the 2nd District.”

Still, Schmidt said he believes Craig will win again.

Craig had her closest campaigns in presidential election years, narrowly losing in 2016 and winning by less than 3 percentage points in 2020. Two years ago she won by about 5 percentage points.

The top of the vote this year could also be telling: Four years ago, Democrat Joe Biden won the district by the same margin as nationally – about 7 percentage points.

Schier, who lives in the district, said despite the visible campaigning on both sides, it no longer appears to be the bitter battleground it once was.

“The 2nd District, I think, is a very good microcosm of the state as a whole because it has large rural areas that are deep red,” he said, while also mentioning the “inner ring suburbs that are strong blue, and that “It can also be a role model for the state in many ways.”