Polls in October 2024: Trump and Harris are in a close race

North Carolina: Trump 50%, Harris 48% | Wisconsin Trump 49% Harris 48%

WI: Baldwin (D) 48%, Hovde (R) 48%

NC: Stein (D) 51%, Robinson (R) 39%

New Emerson College/RealClearWorld polls show close presidential elections in North Carolina and Wisconsin. In North Carolina, 50% support former President Donald Trump and 48% support Vice President Kamala Harris. In Wisconsin, 49% support Trump and 48% support Harris.

“There is a clear gender divide, with men favoring Trump over Harris more than women,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “In North Carolina, men support Trump by 13 points while women support Harris by seven points. In Wisconsin, men support Trump by 12 points, while women favor Harris by nine points.”

In Wisconsin, the race for U.S. Senate is undecided, with 48% supporting Democrat Tammy Baldwin and 48% supporting Republican Eric Hovde. Three percent are undecided.

In North Carolina, 51% support Democrat Josh Stein, while 39% support Republican Mark K. Robinson for governor. Four percent plan to vote for someone else and 6 percent are undecided.

“Eight percent of Trump voters plan to split their votes and also support Stein in the gubernatorial race, while few to no Harris voters plan to split their votes to vote for Robinson,” Kimball noted.

The most important issue for North Carolina voters is the economy at 40%, followed by threats to democracy at 14% and housing affordability and immigration at 11% each.

The most important issue for Wisconsin voters is also the economy at 41%, followed by threats to democracy at 17%, abortion access at 10% and immigration and housing affordability at 9% each.

methodology

The Emerson College Polling Wisconsin and North Carolina polls were conducted October 21-22, 2024. Wisconsin's sample of likely voters, n=800, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll's margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3.4 percentage points. North Carolina's sample of likely voters, n=950, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll's margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3.1 percentage points. The datasets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party registration and region based on modeling of likely voters in 2024. Voter turnout modeling is based on U.S. Census parameters, voter surveys, and voter registration data.

It is important to keep in mind that subsets based on demographic characteristics such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity result in higher credibility intervals when the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the survey's rating range, and with a 95% confidence interval, a survey will fall outside the rating range 1 in 20 times.

Data were collected by contacting mobile phones via MMS-to-Web Text (Aristotle's Phone List) and through an online voter panel provided by CINT. The survey was offered in English.

For all questions asked in this survey, including the exact wording, as well as full results, demographics, and crosstabs, see Full Results. This survey was sponsored by RealClearWorld.

FULL RESULTS