What's really behind the men versus women vote in America?

Among men, Donald Trump has a large lead, while women tell pollsters they prefer Kamala Harris by a similar margin. The political gender divide reflects a decade of social upheaval and could help decide the US election.

Kamala Harris is the first woman of color to secure a presidential nomination and only the second woman ever to come so close. That's why Kamala Harris goes to great lengths not to talk about her identity.

“Listen, I'm running because I believe I'm the best person at this moment to do this job for all Americans, regardless of race and gender,” the vice president said in a CNN interview last month.

And yet, despite all efforts to neutralize the issue, gender is emerging as the dominant theme of this campaign.

“Madame President” would be something new for America, and it's safe to assume that while many voters love the idea, some find the novelty a little unsettling.

The Harris campaign won't say it publicly, but an official recently admitted to me that they believe there is “hidden sexism” here that will keep some people from voting for a woman for president.

The year is 2024, and few people want to be the idiot who directly tells a pollster that they think a woman isn't fit for the Oval Office (though many are willing to share misogynistic memes on social media). One Democratic strategist suggested there's a code: When voters tell pollsters that Harris isn't “ready” or doesn't have the right “personality” or “what it takes,” what they really mean is that's the problem that she is a woman.

The Trump campaign says gender has nothing to do with it. “Kamala is weak, dishonest and dangerously liberal, and that is why the American people will reject her on November 5th,” it said this week. Although Bryan Lanza, a senior adviser to the campaign, texted me saying he was confident Trump would win because “the gender gap gives us an advantage.”

The last time a woman ran for president, negative attitudes toward her gender were clearly a factor. Eight years ago, Hillary Clinton claimed she was the first female nominee of a major party. The campaign's slogan, “I'm with her,” was a not-so-subtle reminder of her leadership.

Pennsylvania Congresswoman Madeleine Dean remembers speaking to voters about Clinton's candidacy. I spent an afternoon with Dean while she was campaigning in her district this week, and she told me that people told her in 2016, “There's just something about her.”

She says she soon realized, “It was about 'them.'” That was one thing. It was that (Hillary) was a woman.”

While Dean thinks emotions are less prevalent these days, she admits that even now “there are certain people who just think, 'A powerful woman?'” No, a bridge too far.'”

A lot has changed for women since 2016. The #MeToo movement in 2017 raised awareness of the subtle – and not-so-subtle – discrimination women face in the workplace. It has changed the way we talk about women as professionals. MeToo may have made it easier for a candidate like Harris to secure the nomination.

But these major strides in diversity, equity and inclusion have been interpreted by some as a step backwards, particularly for young men who felt they had been left behind. Or the changes were simply a step too far for conservative Americans who prefer more traditional gender roles.

CBS News poll results released Sunday suggest a gender gap has opened in the race, reflecting broader attitudes in the U.S. about social roles.

CBS, the BBC's US news partner, reported that men are more likely to say that efforts to promote gender equality in the US have gone too far; They are more likely to be Trump supporters.

Women are more likely to think these efforts haven't been enough — and they tend to support Harris.

Men are also less likely than women to believe Harris will be a strong leader, CBS reported, and the majority of men say they believe Trump will be a strong leader.

For some voters, November's election has become a referendum on gender norms and the social upheavals of recent years. This seems particularly true for the voters Kamala Harris has struggled to reach: the young men who live in a world that is changing rapidly for, well, young men.

“Young men often feel like they will be labeled as misogynistic, homophobic or racist when they ask questions,” said John Della Volpe, survey director at the Harvard Institute of Politics.

“Many are frustrated that they don’t feel understood and then allow themselves to be drawn into a buddy culture like Donald Trump or Elon Musk. They look at who the Democrats are prioritizing — women, abortion rights, LGTBQ culture — and say, 'What about us?'”

Della Volpe specializes in surveying younger voters. He says the young men he is referring to are not part of a radical alt-right incel cabal. They are your sons or your neighbor's sons. In fact, he says, many support equality for women, but also feel that their own concerns go unheard.

Della Volpe runs through a list of statistics that show that young men today are worse off than their female counterparts: they are less likely to get into relationships, are less likely to enroll in college than before, and have higher suicide rates than their female counterparts used to have.

Meanwhile, young American women are pushing forward. They are better educated than men, work in growing service industries and increasingly earn more than men. According to the Gallup polling institute, young women have become significantly more liberal than young men in the time since Donald Trump was elected president.

All of this leads to a strong gender gap. According to the American Enterprise Institute, the share of young men who say the U.S. has gone “too far” in promoting gender equality has more than doubled in the last seven years.

With his almost intuitive sense of people's dissatisfaction, Trump has capitalized on this male frustration and re-emphasized masculinity in the final weeks of his campaign. He reposted a warning on Truth Social, claiming: “Masculinity is under attack.” He recently joked about a famous golfer's genitals.

“This is a guy who was all man,” Trump said, referring to golfer Arnold Palmer. “When he was showering with the other pros, they came out and said, 'Oh my God.' This is unbelievable.'”

Trump took the locker room talk from the locker room — and his audience loved it. Arguing over penis size at a political rally was the ultimate resistance to oppressive political correctness.

At their rallies and on television, Democrats' responses to dissatisfied men seem to be a dose of tough love. Barack Obama complained that some men “don't want to have a woman as president and are coming up with other alternatives and other reasons.” In a new TV ad, actor Ed O'Neill was quicker but more direct: “Be a man: choose a woman.”

In the final days of this campaign, gender is everywhere – and nowhere.

Donald Trump wants masculinity to be the focus of this race. Kamala Harris barely realizes she's a woman running for office. In a New York Times poll, Trump is ahead with 14% among male voters. Harris leads women with 12%.

Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls – you could decide this election.