New Hampshire October 2024 poll: Harris 50%, Trump 47%

Governor: Ayotte (R) 46%, Craig (D) 43%

A new Emerson College Polling/WHDH New Hampshire poll finds that 50% of likely voters support Kamala Harris for president in 2024, while 47% support former President Donald Trump. Two percent plan to vote for a third party and 1 percent are undecided. Taking support from undecided voters into account, overall support for Harris rises to 51%, while Trump remains at 47%.

As of the July 2024 Emerson New Hampshire poll, Harris' support remained at 50% while Trump's support increased by one point.

“Harris' lead among women is similar to Biden's in 2020 – although male voters have shifted toward Trump by about two points,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “In addition, Harris lags behind Biden’s 2020 support among independent voters, who score for Harris by 13 points but for Biden by about double.”

In the gubernatorial election to replace Gov. Chris Sununu, 46% support former Republican Attorney General Kelly Ayotte, while 43% support Democratic former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig. Seven percent are undecided.

“In New Hampshire, independent voters are split: 42% support Ayotte and Craig, respectively,” Kimball said. “Craig leads among voters under 40, 47% to 42%, and over 70, 47% to 41%, while Ayotte leads among voters under 40 to 60, 49% to 39%.”

A majority of New Hampshire voters (53%) have a positive opinion of Harris, while 47% have a negative opinion of the vice president. 47 percent have a positive opinion of Trump, while 53 percent have a negative opinion of him.

Half of voters have a positive opinion of Ayotte, while 48% have a negative opinion of her. Two percent have never heard of Ayotte. 46 percent have a positive opinion of Craig, while 48 percent have a negative opinion of Craig. Six percent have never heard of the former mayor.

The most important issue for New Hampshire voters is the economy at 34%, followed by housing affordability at 26%, threats to democracy at 10%, health care at 8% and immigration at 6%.

President Biden has a 39% approval rating in New Hampshire, while 53% disapprove of his job in office. Gov. Chris Sununu has a 48% approval rating and a 28% disapproval rating.

methodology

The Emerson College Polling New Hampshire survey was conducted October 21-23, 2024. The sample of likely voters, n=915, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll's margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3.2 percentage points. The datasets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party and region based on modeling of likely voters in 2024. Voter turnout modeling is based on U.S. Census parameters, voter surveys, and voter registration data.

It is important to keep in mind that subsets based on demographic characteristics such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity result in higher credibility intervals when the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the survey's rating range, and with a 95% confidence interval, a survey will fall outside the rating range 1 in 20 times.

Data were collected by contacting mobile phones via MMS-to-Web Text (Aristotle's Phone List) and through an online voter panel provided by CINT. The survey was offered in English.

For all questions asked in this survey, including the exact wording, as well as full results, demographics, and crosstabs, see Full Results. This survey was sponsored by Emerson College.

FULL RESULTS