College football odds, picks, best bets

Texas A&M hosts LSU on Saturday night in a matchup between top-15 teams with identical 6-1 records and unblemished SEC marks.

While the Aggies are praised for their defense, they have never faced a team with the Tigers' offensive prowess.

Brian Kelly has always been flexible at his various stops when it comes to building his teams based on their strengths, and now that he's at LSU, bringing in top talent year after year is no longer a problem.

Although Kelly and the Tigers lost Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels and two first-round receivers, the offense can easily reload thanks to the quality that will be on display Saturday night in College Station.

LSU vs Texas A&M odds

LSU outlook

Garrett Nussmeier has completed 55% (69 of 125) of his passes in three SEC games, but Kelly defended his quarterback this week and said his offense encourages Nussmeier to make more of his passes further down the field.

“You can’t get some of the cupcake tosses that keep the chains moving in some other offenses,” Kelly said. “But we think this is a better fit for Garrett in terms of his job. And it worked pretty well for our offense.”

Nussmeier's aggressiveness has certainly paid off, as he ranks seventh nationally in yards per game (317.4) and leads the SEC with 18 passing touchdowns.

According to Game on Paper, his dropbacks account for 0.27 Expected Points Added (EPA) – the 10th best mark in the country.

The reality is that Kelly's reliance on the passing game is almost necessary given the Tigers' difficulty moving the ball on the ground. LSU's run success rate is just 38.3%, ranking 99th in the FBS.

Outlook for Texas A&M

There are no secrets about how the Aggies will attempt to attack LSU. Unlike the Tigers, Texas A&M is a more run-dominant team, ranking 34th in yards per carry (5.77) and 39th in EPA/Rush (+0.09).

It's no surprise that the Aggies have a run-play rate of 62.06% – the 11th highest mark in the country.

The problem for LSU is that it is extremely weak against the run, with opponents averaging 5.29 yards per carry (93rd).

Against South Carolina, the Tigers allowed 243 rushing yards on 5.9 yards per carry in a narrow 36-33 win. South Carolina and Texas A&M have very similar profiles, with run rates both ranking in the top 20.

You can be sure Aggies coach Mike Elko will be studying the game tape extensively to find out the Tigers' weak points in this important SEC showdown.

LSU vs. Texas A&M tip

As much as the Aggies want to keep the ball on the ground, this potent LSU offense could force them to stop the run sooner than they would like.

While Texas A&M has had success in the passing game, it is extremely young at quarterback with sophomore Conner Weigman and freshman Marcel Reed.

Weigman reclaimed the starting job after returning from a shoulder injury, although Reed went 3-0 while throwing six touchdowns and zero interceptions.

In contrast, Weigman has thrown three touchdowns and four picks. However, his TD-INT ratio is somewhat misleading as it misinterprets Texas A&M's scoring ability in the running game. The Aggies have already scored 16 touchdowns on the ground.

There should be opportunities for the Aggies to move the ball through the air against LSU's defense, which ranks 98th with an EPA/Dropback of +0.05.

Betting on college football?

The Tigers also have difficulty taking the ball away, as they only have four interceptions this season.

Considering that this is a duel in which both teams can play to their strengths, there should be a lot of points on the scoreboard in the end.

Best Bet: Over 54.5 points (-110, BetMGM)

Why you should trust New York Post Betting

For the New York Post, Michael Arinze hinders most major sports. He has won two 15-leg teasers and a 12-leg parlay in his betting career, which spanned eight games of the Little League World Series. Most recently, he precisely selected the finalists for the 2024 European Championship and the Copa América.