PREVIEW: Northwestern at Iowa – Hawkeye Beacon: Iowa Hawkeyes recruiting for football and basketball

WHO: Northwestern Wildcats (3-4, 1-3 Big Ten)

WHEN: 2:30 p.m. CT (Saturday, October 26, 2024)

WHERE: Kinnick Stadium (Iowa City, IA)

TV: BTN

RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin, Pat Angerer, Rob Brooks) | Sirius/XM 139/195

MOBILE: foxsports.com/mobile

ON-LINE: foxsports.com/live

CONSEQUENCES: @HawkeyeBeacon | @HawkeyeFootball | @CFBONFOX | @IowaonBTN

WEATHER: Temperatures below 60°C, mostly sunny, hardly any wind

LINE: Iowa -14.5 (37.5 total)

Iowa and Northwestern both enter Saturday's game hoping to revive their performances after tough games last week. Iowa was obviously picked apart by Michigan State, while Northwestern was steamrolled at home by Wisconsin, 23-3. The Wildcats went down 14-0 early and barely mustered 200 yards of offense and only nine first downs for the game.

This is the second year for Northwestern Under David Brownthe replaced one Pat Fitzgerald Last season, Fitzgerald's tenure ended abruptly after a player mistreatment scandal brought it to an abrupt end. Braun salvaged a messy situation and led Northwestern to a rather surprising 8-5 record last season amid that turmoil.

Northwestern failed to gain much traction in 2024, sitting at 3-4 and just 1-3 against Big Ten competition to this point in the season. The only wins were close victories Miami (OH) A one-sided win over a very bad one in the season opener Eastern Illinois team and a shocking road breakdown over Maryland. Last season, Northwestern also started 3-4 before finishing the season with a 5-1 stretch. A 10-7 loss to Iowa at Wrigley Field last November was the only loss in those last six games.

Northwestern had one of the least effective offenses in the Big Ten this season. The Wildcats are averaging just 19.0 ppg; only UCLA (17.4 ppg) has averaged less this season. Northwestern has scored more than 30 points only twice and has been held to 13 points or fewer in three games this year.

The WIldcats also rank last in the league in total offense with fewer than 300 yards per game (286.6 ypg) and just 4.76 yards per game (also last). Northwestern was almost equally ineffective throwing and running the ball; The Wildcats rank 16th in the Big Ten in passing offense (166 YPA), 17th in passing yards per attempt (5.7 YPA), and last in QB rating (104.3) and the passing touchdowns (4). The Wildcats rank 15th in the league in rushing offense (120.6 YPC) and 14th in yards per carry (3.89 YPC).

Northwestern also ranks 14th in red zone scoring percentage (77.3%, 17 points on 22 attempts) and 15th in touchdown conversions (50%, 11 of 22 attempts). The Wildcats were particularly poor at converting third downs, converting just 26.7% (24 of 90) of those opportunities into first downs.

Two bright spots for the Wildcats: They don't turn the ball over often and are good at protecting the passer. The Wildcats have lost just seven giveaways, three interceptions and four fumbles this season. The offensive line has also only allowed nine sacks in seven games this year.

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With former Northwestern quarterback Brendan Sullivan now in Iowa City, sophomore Jack Lausch has taken over as the starter after missing the first two games of the season. Lausch was unremarkable as a thrower, completing 70 of 138 attempts (50.7%) for 808 yards with four touchdowns and two interceptions this year. However, Lausch was a capable runner with 196 yards on the ground and a touchdown on 47 attempts this season.

Northwestern's best runner is long-time Cam Porter, a veteran RB who leads the team in carries (73), yards (320) and touchdowns (5). Aside from Porter and Lausch, sophomore RB Joseph Himon II has also gained over 100 yards this season, with 33 attempts for 145 yards and one score this year.

Senior wide receiver AJ Henning (5'10″, 190) leads the team in receptions (34) and touchdown catches, with three of the team's four total touchdown receptions. Fellow senior wide receiver Bryce Kirtz (6'0 “, 195) leads the team receiving 414 yards on 27 receptions. Senior tight end Thomas Gordon is the other major receiving threat with 14 receptions for 155 yards.

Northwestern has been average on defense this year. The Wildcats rank 10th in the league in scoring defense (19.6 points per game), 13th in total defense (350.1 points per game) and 10th in yards allowed per play (5.2). Pass defense was a particular concern for Northwestern, ranking 16th in passing yards allowed (246.7 YPA), 13th in yards per attempt allowed (7.0 YPA), and 12th in passing yards allowed (7.0 YPA). allowed completion rate (61.9%). The Wildcats have allowed 10 touchdowns through the air with six interceptions.

The Wildcats were better against the run, ranking 8th in the league in run defense (103.4 ypg). They are fifth in the league in yards per carry allowed (3.2 ypc) and have conceded six rushing touchdowns. Northwestern was also average on third downs, allowing conversions on 35% of attempts (9th in the league).

Northwestern's other strengths: pass rush and red zone defense. The Wildcats have 17 sacks this year, sixth-best in the Big Ten. Northwestern has also shown a good ability to stay put in the red zone, shooting just 72.4% (21 points on 29 attempts), which is third-best in the Big Ten. Opponents have scored touchdowns on less than 50% of their red zone appearances (14 of 29, 48.3%).

Linebackers Mac Uihlein and Xander Mueller lead the team in tackles with 46 and 43 stops, respectively. Aidan Hubbard leads the team in sacks (3.0) and tackles for loss (3.5), while Anto Saka ranks second in sacks (2.5) and second in tackles for loss (3.5). took first place. They also lead the team in QB hurries, with four hurries each. Defensive back Theran Johnson was the most notable Wildcat in coverage with seven passes defended.

Northwestern has scored the second-most points (36) in the league this year, behind only Purdue. However, those punts only went for 42 yards per attempt, which ranks 13th in the league. The opponent has only put up 96 yards on 14 returns this season (6.9 yards per return).

Jack Olsen converted seven of 10 field goal attempts for Northwestern to start the season, but punter Luke Akers has taken over the field shooting duties in the last two games. He converted four of six field goal attempts in those two games, including two misses last week against Wisconsin. Akers also handled kickoff duties all season, scoring touchbacks on 17 of 32 attempts this year.

On paper, Northwestern doesn't look like a team that has the weapons to threaten Iowa's defense – but the same was somewhat true at Michigan State last week, and we know how that turned out. Iowa will need to play with greater effort and greater focus on Saturday, despite the struggles Northwestern's offense has shown in previous appearances this season.

Saturday's game is the start of a two-game stretch at home, and Iowa will need to take advantage of the comforts of home to regain some traction and prevent this season from completely derailing. However, Northwestern has long been a nemesis for Iowa, and the strength of their run defense could put additional pressure on Cade McNamara and Iowa's passing game.

I expect the defense to refocus and recover after last week's tough game and do a much better job of keeping Northwestern's offense under control. But how will McNamara and the Hawkeye offense fare? My tip is that McNamara has one of his better games of the season (over 180 passing yards and a touchdown) and Kaleb Johnson goes for over 100 yards on the ground again.

Iowa 24, Northwest 14