Early voting data shows good news for Republicans in crucial swing state: expert

The critical swing state of Michigan has seen record-breaking early voting numbers so far, with Republican turnout data improving significantly throughout 2020, which could bode well for former President Trump and Republicans, an expert says .

“The numbers we're seeing from Michigan are encouraging for Republicans overall,” Jimmy Keady, founder and president of JLK Political Strategies, a Republican consulting firm, told Fox News Digital.

Keady's comments come as more than 1.2 million voters in Michigan have already cast ballots in this year's election, according to data on the Michigan Department of State dashboard. In doing so, they have used either early voting or absentee voting, while also breaking the previous record for early voting returns to the state.

While early voting data can provide information about which party a voter is registered with, it does not necessarily mean that the voter voted for the candidate affiliated with that party in that election. The data also comes two weeks before Election Day, leaving plenty of time for trends to shift between now and November 5th.

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Republican presidential candidate and former President Trump is shown at a campaign rally on October 13, 2024 in Prescott Valley, Arizona. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

According to the data, about 17% of the state's more than 7 million registered voters have already returned a ballot, and another approximately 1 million requested mail-in ballots have yet to be returned.

While Michigan does not publicly track party registration like some states do, data from Target Smart on NBC News estimates that 53% of ballots returned in Michigan so far have come from Democrats, while 37% have come from Republicans and 10% from came from “others”. “

But Keady said those numbers show improved Republican turnout, a welcome sign for a Trump campaign hoping to rack up votes before Election Day.

“While Democrats maintain their lead in the election hunt, Republicans are not far behind, outperforming previous election cycles,” Keady said, noting that it is still “hard to say what impact these numbers will have on the outcome.”

“What we’re seeing on the ground is that Republicans are actively attracting more low-propensity voters than Democrats,” Keady added.

Donald Trump (Andrew Leyden/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

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Target Smart data shows that more than 21.5 million absentee and early in-person votes have already been cast nationwide as of Wednesday, with 45% of them coming from Democrats, 38% from Republicans and 17% from other voters.

Keady expects Michigan and Nevada to be two key states to watch, another of the seven swing states where straight voting could play a crucial role in down-ballot races.

“A key aspect of this election cycle will be direct voting,” Keady said. “Nevada and Michigan are the only two swing states – and two of seven states nationally – that allow direct voting. In places like Michigan, where the top of the ballot beats the down-ballot contests, there is a good chance that a direct-vote vote will help the Senate, Congressional and statewide races.”

Mike Rogers, R-Mich., a candidate for U.S. Senate and former U.S. Representative, speaks during a campaign rally for Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump on September 27, 2024 in Walker, Michigan. (Scott Olson/Getty Images)

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Keady also cautioned against reading too much into the Democrats' partisan advantage, noting that many of Trump's supporters are likely to be union voters who have traditionally supported Democrats but will back Trump in 2024.

“It’s important to remember the impact union voters will have on this election,” Keady said. “Many union members are registered Democrats. Without the union’s support for Harris, there will be many disillusioned union members who will trade their votes for Republicans this year.”

Get the latest updates on the 2024 election, exclusive interviews and more at our Fox News Digital Election Center.